Odds of Winning The 2008 Super Bowl

[jjflr]

VEGAS ODDS
FOR
2008 SUPER BOWL

By JJFLR
April 2007

<img src="http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/SB42.gif" height="240" width="288">

DISCLAIMER: SPORTS BETTING IS ILLEGAL IN THE UNITED STATES EXCEPT IN THE STATE OF NEVADA

Place your Bets !!

What are YOUR team’s chances of winning Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Arizona on February 3rd, 2008?

Vegas knows the odds!

The Vegas odds-makers know what they’re doing. These guys are pros when it comes to sports handicapping. However, THEY are not the only ones that determine where odds are set. The general public can affect whether odds go up or down depending on betting or non-betting. Therefore, when I mention in my comments 'they' or 'Vegas', it refers to the bookmakers and the betting public.

Give me your opinions. Which of these teams are 'legit' and which are just 'hyped'?

NOTE: I used three on-line resources to garner a sampling of the current odds:

1) www.covers.com
2) www.bodog.com
3) www.marasoft.com

1) New England Patriots http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/patshelmet.gif3/1 to 4/1—the off-season additions are impressing Vegas

2) San Diego Chargers http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/chargershelmet.gif6/1—surprised they’re ahead of the Colts?

3) Indianapolis Colts http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/colts1_268644.jpg6/1 to 8/1—being disrespected?

4) Chicago Bears http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/bearshelmet_981219.gif10/1—Vegas feels they still have the core in place to compete

5) Seattle Seahawks http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/seahawkshelmet.gif12/1—they apparently like the defensive moves

6t) Baltimore Ravens http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/ravenshelmet_154726.gif15/1—addition of McGahee doesn’t seem to impress them much

6t) Dallas Cowboys http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/cowboyshelmet.gif15/1—apparently they like the hiring of Wade Phillips

8t) Cincinnati Bengals http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/bengalshelmet.gif15/1 to 17/1—everyone still has faith in this team

8t) Denver Broncos http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/broncoshelmet.gif15/1 to 17/1—with the off-season additions, only 5th or 6th best in AFC?

10) Philadelphia Eagles http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/eagleshelmet.gif15/1 to 18/1—nice additions, why 4th best in the NFC?

11) New Orleans Saints http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/saintshelmet.gif18/1 to 19/1—why 5th in NFC when they played in NFCCG?

12) Pittsburgh Steelers http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/pit2.gif18/1 to 20/1—Faith in the new coach

13t) Carolina Panthers http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/panthershelmet.gif20/1—They still like Delhomme

13t) New York Giants http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/giantshelmet_395624.gif20/1—I’m not sure WHO they have faith in with the Giants

15t) Jacksonville Jaguars http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/jagshelmet.gif30/1—middle of the pack

15t) Kansas City Chiefs http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/chiefshelmet.gif30/1—about where they should be

15t) New York Jets http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/jetshelmet_462551.gif30/1—surprised they aren’t a little higher?

18) Tennessee Titans http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/titanshelmet.gif38/1 to 40/1—this seems a bit optimistic. It’s all VY

19) Arizona Cardinals http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/cardinals.jpg35/1 to 50/1—this is rather shocking with no defense in place

20) Miami Dolphins http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/dolphinshelmet_768011.gif40/1—I like Cameron more than anybody but 40/1?

21) Green Bay Packers http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/packershelmet_135700.gif40/1 to 50/1—people still like Favre

22) San Francisco 49ers http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/49ershelmet_125325.gif40/1 to 60/1—starting to get some attention

23t) Atlanta Falcons http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/falcons2.gif50/1—apparently Vegas is with me on where this franchise is heading

23t) Buffalo Bills http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/billshelmet.gif50/1—lots of losses on defensive side of the ball hurts their chances

23t) Washington Redskins http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/redskinshelmet.gif50/1—good dark-horse bet?

26) St. Louis Rams http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/ramshelmet.gif55/1 to 60/1—surprised they’re so low?

27t) Tampa Bay Buccaneers http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/bucshelmet.gif70/1 to 75/1—getting down towards the bottom of the heap

27t) Minnesota Vikings http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/vikingshelmet.gif70/1 to 75/1—nothing on offense to make us think otherwise

29) Oakland Raiders http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/raidershelmet.gif80/1 to 100/1—why would anyone pay 80/1 for the worst team in the NFL? Bad bet.

30t) Cleveland Browns http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/brownshelmet.gif100/1—They should be ahead of the Raiders, shouldn’t they?

30t) Detroit Lions http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/lionshelmet.gif100/1—no surprise here

30t) Houston Texans http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/9/2/0/texanshelmet.gif100/1—They should also be ahead of the Raiders,right?

[jjflr]

here are my 5 over-rated and 5 under-rated on the odds. Give me your opinion:

Over-rated:

Giants
Cowboys
Cardinals
Dolphins
Titans

Under-rated:

Eagles
Saints
Texans
Redskins
Browns

[Soel v25]

here are my 5 over-rated and 5 under-rated on the odds. Give me your opinion:

Over-rated:

Giants
Cowboys
Cardinals
Dolphins
Titans

Under-rated:

Eagles
Saints
Texans
Redskins
Browns



No hatin' here, but Dallas seems like a strange call to me (by the oddsmakers),they would be the most over-rated to me. I also agree that the Saints definitely seem a bit under-rated here.

[jjflr]

No hatin' here, but Dallas seems like a strange call to me (by the oddsmakers),they would be the most over-rated to me. .

i don't think it's hatin' at all...............i think most cowboys fans would also be a little surprised to find out they are the 6th or 7th favorite to win the super bowl according to Vegas....................

[Weston M]

Yeah it really blows my mind that the Saints are that low after what they did last year.

weston

[Tronix]

I heard on a TV show, on the Travel channel, that Vegas, is just over 50&#37; all-time handicapping. Which means they are as accurate as taking a random guess...hmm..

I'd put $100 on the Bucs to go to win $7,000 though, and they know this, so they put crap like this out...

[whywerule]

San Diego Chargers 6/1—surprised they’re ahead of the Colts...
I'm very surprised the Chargers are ahead of the Colts; heck I'm surprised the Pats are ahead of the Colts...we all know about the Chargers ex-Head Coach's playoff failings, but who would possibly be excited about their new Head Coach?

[TexecutedInTampa]

[QUOTE=jjflr;404645][CENTER]VEGAS ODDS
FOR
2008 SUPER BOWL

By JJFLR
April 2007

http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/SB42.gif

DISCLAIMER: SPORTS BETTING IS ILLEGAL IN THE UNITED STATES EXCEPT IN THE STATE OF NEVADA

Place your Bets !!

What are YOUR team’s chances of winning Super Bowl XLII in Glendale, Arizona on February 3rd, 2008?

Vegas knows the odds!

The Vegas odds-makers know what they’re doing. These guys are pros when it comes to sports handicapping. However, THEY are not the only ones that determine where odds are set. The general public can affect whether odds go up or down depending on betting or non-betting. Therefore, when I mention in my comments 'they' or 'Vegas', it refers to the bookmakers and the betting public.

Give me your opinions. Which of these teams are 'legit' and which are just 'hyped'?

Well, I admit to being a Pats homer but yeah they are 'legit'

I am stunned that they have the #1 slot. That has to be a first.

Well, Vegas makes money on being right, so I for one think this validates our off-season:)

[Youngstown Colt]

The Cardinals have no defense? Since when?

[TexecutedInTampa]

[QUOTE=jjflr;404645][CENTER]VEGAS ODDS
FOR
2008 SUPER BOWL

By JJFLR
April 2007

http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/SB42.gif

Yes, I am a little perturbed at San Diego being higher than Indy. Based on what?

If I were the actuary drawing the line, I'd have Indy, SD, and NE in that order. Since I am a Pats homer I'll add that "we ain't scared of you":) OK, maybe a little scared of Indy( maybe) , but not of SD.

In the 2006 AFCCG, Indy did what they never could do before (at least when they played NE).

They adapted to what was going on. And that's why they won. Ask a Colt's fan, they'll agree.

I so respect that. New England had been doing it since Belichick came to town. All of a sudden, Indy has the code!! I have seen all the Indy/NE games for about 10-15 years. Indy has made a huge leap and that scares me.

San Diego, not so much....all that talent has to be respected. But they have a new coaching staff....and all they did in 2006 was self-destruct....

[Crunked]

The Cardinals have no defense? Since when?


Exactly what I thought when I read that

[jjflr]

did anyone WATCH the cardinals play last year?

their defense was HORRIBLE..........they couldn't stop anybody...........

they have some severe problems on defense..........

couple this with serious O-line issues (that STILL haven't been addressed) and I don't see HOW they can be 19th...........that's a joke..........

what, do we consider their defense 'fixed' with their huge free agent signing of Rod Hood ?

[Youngstown Colt]

Because they were a top 10 defense the year before with no significant changes? Leaving a defense on the field for too long will make the best D look incompetent.

Once Ken institutes an efficient offense, that D will be back to dominating form.

[whywerule]

Because they were a top 10 defense the year before with no significant changes? Leaving a defense on the field for too long will make the best D look incompetent.....
There are many misleading statistics in the NFL, IMO on the short list of the most misleading is the defensive yards rank. So what if they were 8th in the league in yards allowed in 2005?...they were 26th in the league in points allowed (an arguably decent NFL statistical category, unlike yards allowed). In addition, they had a 5-11 record in the awful NFC West division. How does a team with an above average defense in the awful NFC West division, and the weak NFC conference, finish with a 5-11 record in 2005, no matter how underachieving their offense may be? To me the answer is that their defense stinks and has historically stunk for many years.

For over a decade the Cardinals have been among the league's worst defenses when it comes to giving up points, with a shocking blip in 2004 when they were 12th in the league in that reasonable statistical category. I don't agree with JJFLR that often, but I certainly agree that the Cardinals have no defense until proven otherwise; and they haven't really proven otherwise for damn near forever.

[jjflr]

. I don't agree with JJFLR that often

well, ok then.............:(

[StevenSD]

San Diego, not so much....all that talent has to be respected. But they have a new coaching staff....and all they did in 2006 was self-destruct....

Maybe it has something to do with this. (this is from another charger fan on another board, that said this way better than I can)


The 3rd youngest roster in the NFL staying together for the next three or four years (minimum) and getting a chance to what has rarely been done since the salary cap was enforced after ringing up the Donks and Niners for cheating on the cap will be improved by another season playing together.

With PR, LT, Gates, Vincent Jackson, Lo Neal, Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick, Shane Olivea, Eric Parker, Luis Castillo, Jamal Williams, Shawne Merriman, Matt Wilhelm, Stephen Cooper, Shaun Phillips, Quentin Jammer, Marlon McCree, Kassim Osgood, Nate Kaeding and Mike Scifres all signed through the 2009 season (at a minimum) and Igor Olshansky & Mike Goff signed through the 2008 season, the Chargers will improve in 2007 the way that teams used to improve before unrestricted free agency and the salary cap disrupted team rosters:

- by keeping the young core together and improving as a team.

With the 10 Pro Bowlers (and 2 first alternates), the team will be better than the 2007 edition and will be far more prepared for playoff pressure come January. I doubt if they improve or do as well as the 14-2 record this year, but postseason success is all that matters.

Hmm. For your little case about the coaching, I remember when a certain coach went to New England with no kind of winning history as being the head coach. We all know what happened.

[Azazel]

JJ...you know i love ya man....but from top to bottom this is crazy.....just to start....baltimore, san diego, dallas....come on man.....you are better than this.

[StevenSD]

JJ...you know i love ya man....but from top to bottom this is crazy.....just to start....baltimore, san diego, dallas....come on man.....you are better than this.

If I wanted to read the samething that almost every other sports site says, I would agree.

[Soel v25]

JJ...you know i love ya man....but from top to bottom this is crazy.....just to start....baltimore, san diego, dallas....come on man.....you are better than this.


2 things:
1.Aren't these what the oddmakers think, not JJ?
2.I can see the problem with Dallas, but why do you think Baltimore and San Diego are such bad calls?

[ATLfALCONS171]

ha Falcons at number 23. I am a Falcons fan and all, but even a Falcons fan like me would admit me the should be at like 30 or 31. The odds of them being to a Super Bowl and winning it, slim to none. We'll just have to wait until 07-08 season.

[Soel v25]

ha Falcons at number 23. I am a Falcons fan and all, but even a Falcons fan like me would admit me the should be at like 30 or 31. The odds of them being to a Super Bowl and winning it, slim to none. We'll just have to wait until 07-08 season.


That's what these odds are about. This coming season is the 07-08 season. I think you meant 08-09 season.


edit: Or, did you just mean that we'll have to wait to see how they do this upcoming season?

[Azazel]

2 things:
1.Aren't these what the oddmakers think, not JJ?
2.I can see the problem with Dallas, but why do you think Baltimore and San Diego are such bad calls?

san diego lost their whole coaching staff, and a few players, they arent that high up on the list.


baltimore is another year older and for that team, that is OLD. they are not that high on the list, those were just 3 i grabbed at random.

as for JJ.....he took a few sites and mixed their odds.


just to name a few moe.....i can see with the changes that the pats have made that they would be hyped up.....


broncos should be higher then if that is the theory.


steelers and bengals should be lower, probably a lot lower....and why is Carolina even a NEAR where they are?

[jjflr]

JJ...you know i love ya man....but from top to bottom this is crazy.....just to start....baltimore, san diego, dallas....come on man.....you are better than this.



yes, as has been discussed, these are not MY odds.........these are simply a current snapshot of the 'vegas' odds........

(and I agree that the chargers and cowboys odds are ridiculously low)

[Crunked]

This just in, odds of the Colts winning the SB again 1 in 32 that is all.........

[jjflr]

This just in, odds of the Colts winning the SB again 1 in 32 that is all.........

well, you have to take out the Raiders.............so it's actually 1 in 31.........:rolleyes:

[Crunked]

lol true enough...dont know why I do what I do, I just go with the flow.......I love seeing the vegas odds, gives the moussed up heads in the booth something to talk about when not interviewing the minor celebrity of the week.