YoHoChecko
03-05-2006, 12:01 AM
http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/pshlogoyellow6ad.jpg
A Draft Revelation: Reincarnation?
By YoHoChecko
Two off-seasons ago, Jamal Lewis was coming off of a 2000 yard season, Ahman Green had 1800 yards and 20 total TDs and Priest Holmes still sat upon the throne of his 3-year reign as the NFL’s most dominant running back with a fresh new TD record. LaDanian Tomlinson was thought as the up-and-comer challenging these established backs for the title of the best back in the league (and many thought he was already there). It was certainly one of the best years for running backs in recent memory.
That off-season, I decided to do a detailed comparison between the runners, as I am apt to do. The comparison relied upon several different statistics, many of which I contrived myself by charting the length of each TD, the number of long runs each back had, specific looks at all rushing attempts from within the ten yard line, ect. Coincidentally, sportsillustrated.com did a similar comparison with 16 different statistical rankings combined together to rate the top 15 backs in the league. Under their criteria, Holmes, Tomlinson and Green were all very close at the top distanced from the rest of the pack. Lewis was the top finisher aside from that trio. Their information was also useful in further detailing my analysis.
http://i.cnn.net/si/2004/fantasy/01/08/back.page/p1_holmes_ap.jpg
This is all a little bit of background, explaining why I studied these backs, and how detailed my analysis was. Along with my observations on the field, I used these myriad statistics to get a very clear picture of the strengths and type of player each running back was. What stuck out to me the most were my observations about Priest Holmes.
Initially, I concluded that he was overrated because I was able to find distinct weaknesses, but I have since been convinced that just because I value certain things does not make them necessarily more valuable on the football field. While I no longer have the specific numbers that I computed two years ago, here are some of my basic conclusions about Priest Holmes:
-He was an excellent short-yardage runner
-He was an excellent red zone and goal-to-go runner (scored on about 50% of his attempts)
-He did not have break-away speed. He had only one run over 30 yards that season (31) and only a couple more over 20. In other seasons, he did not fare all that much better. He has personally acknowledged his lack of “big plays” as something he wanted to improve upon… however, he never did.
-His yards per carry were pretty good, but that year they were below his average and he only had one season with the Chiefs averaging over 5.0 ypc.
-His monstrous touchdown numbers were also aided by his insane amount of carries inside the ten yard line. That season, most runners (I think all but Tomlinson, actually) had only half of the carries inside the ten yard line.
-In accordance with most of these above-listed facts, his average yards per touchdown was only around 6 yards, while guys like Jamal Lewis and Ahman Green were over 10.
Now, again, Holmes was excellent at what he could do. He caught the ball out of the backfield well, he was very successful in moving the chains by converting third downs and in making red zone trips count for touchdowns rather than field goals. Those abilities, and how good he was at them, make him a very valuable back, so the point of this article is not to start a debate over whether or not Priest Holmes was overrated. In fact, at this point, everyone is probably wondering why I am quoting stats now three seasons old. The point is that I recently had a revelation. Priest Holmes is about to be reborn.
http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/draft.jpg
I was reading a mock draft the other day. At the ten spot, this mock had the Cardinals taking LenDale White. The explanation read something like this: "White is a workhorse back has a nose for the end zone and will instantly upgrade the Cardinals’ abysmal red zone offense." Having watched USC as often as possible the past couple years, I am also well aware that LenDale White is a very solid receiver out of the backfield with reliable hands. Like Holmes, he lacks true breakaway speed and is not much of a home run threat. Like Holmes, when the team needs a couple yards, he is able to pick them up. Like Holmes, when the ball is near the end zone, he does what it takes to get the ball across that line.
http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2005/football/ncaa/10/01/closer.look.usc.arizonast/White-9.30.jpg
There remains but one question, in my mind. Holmes, despite his lack of speed, had very good acceleration allowing him to get to the corner and to turn it very well. His suddenness and his lateral speed were excellent. That goes a long way in determining success as a full-time NFL back, but the rest of the comparisons were, in my mind, strong enough to overcome that question. In fact, you could even go back to college and say that both were overshadowed by a teammate, as Holmes backed up Ricky Williams for part of his career.
Of course, their measurables differ. White is about 5 inches taller and 20 or so pounds heavier than Holmes is. But it is not their body type, so much as their style of play that I wanted to compare, especially in terms of White’s potential impact in the NFL.
So while Bush and DeAngelo Williams are definitely exciting players and worth their lofty draft status, I just thought it was worth mentioning that, if used correctly, there’s a chance that the #3 back in this draft is actually a re-incarnation of a man who ruled the league for a portion of his career.
A Draft Revelation: Reincarnation?
By YoHoChecko
Two off-seasons ago, Jamal Lewis was coming off of a 2000 yard season, Ahman Green had 1800 yards and 20 total TDs and Priest Holmes still sat upon the throne of his 3-year reign as the NFL’s most dominant running back with a fresh new TD record. LaDanian Tomlinson was thought as the up-and-comer challenging these established backs for the title of the best back in the league (and many thought he was already there). It was certainly one of the best years for running backs in recent memory.
That off-season, I decided to do a detailed comparison between the runners, as I am apt to do. The comparison relied upon several different statistics, many of which I contrived myself by charting the length of each TD, the number of long runs each back had, specific looks at all rushing attempts from within the ten yard line, ect. Coincidentally, sportsillustrated.com did a similar comparison with 16 different statistical rankings combined together to rate the top 15 backs in the league. Under their criteria, Holmes, Tomlinson and Green were all very close at the top distanced from the rest of the pack. Lewis was the top finisher aside from that trio. Their information was also useful in further detailing my analysis.
http://i.cnn.net/si/2004/fantasy/01/08/back.page/p1_holmes_ap.jpg
This is all a little bit of background, explaining why I studied these backs, and how detailed my analysis was. Along with my observations on the field, I used these myriad statistics to get a very clear picture of the strengths and type of player each running back was. What stuck out to me the most were my observations about Priest Holmes.
Initially, I concluded that he was overrated because I was able to find distinct weaknesses, but I have since been convinced that just because I value certain things does not make them necessarily more valuable on the football field. While I no longer have the specific numbers that I computed two years ago, here are some of my basic conclusions about Priest Holmes:
-He was an excellent short-yardage runner
-He was an excellent red zone and goal-to-go runner (scored on about 50% of his attempts)
-He did not have break-away speed. He had only one run over 30 yards that season (31) and only a couple more over 20. In other seasons, he did not fare all that much better. He has personally acknowledged his lack of “big plays” as something he wanted to improve upon… however, he never did.
-His yards per carry were pretty good, but that year they were below his average and he only had one season with the Chiefs averaging over 5.0 ypc.
-His monstrous touchdown numbers were also aided by his insane amount of carries inside the ten yard line. That season, most runners (I think all but Tomlinson, actually) had only half of the carries inside the ten yard line.
-In accordance with most of these above-listed facts, his average yards per touchdown was only around 6 yards, while guys like Jamal Lewis and Ahman Green were over 10.
Now, again, Holmes was excellent at what he could do. He caught the ball out of the backfield well, he was very successful in moving the chains by converting third downs and in making red zone trips count for touchdowns rather than field goals. Those abilities, and how good he was at them, make him a very valuable back, so the point of this article is not to start a debate over whether or not Priest Holmes was overrated. In fact, at this point, everyone is probably wondering why I am quoting stats now three seasons old. The point is that I recently had a revelation. Priest Holmes is about to be reborn.
http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/draft.jpg
I was reading a mock draft the other day. At the ten spot, this mock had the Cardinals taking LenDale White. The explanation read something like this: "White is a workhorse back has a nose for the end zone and will instantly upgrade the Cardinals’ abysmal red zone offense." Having watched USC as often as possible the past couple years, I am also well aware that LenDale White is a very solid receiver out of the backfield with reliable hands. Like Holmes, he lacks true breakaway speed and is not much of a home run threat. Like Holmes, when the team needs a couple yards, he is able to pick them up. Like Holmes, when the ball is near the end zone, he does what it takes to get the ball across that line.
http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2005/football/ncaa/10/01/closer.look.usc.arizonast/White-9.30.jpg
There remains but one question, in my mind. Holmes, despite his lack of speed, had very good acceleration allowing him to get to the corner and to turn it very well. His suddenness and his lateral speed were excellent. That goes a long way in determining success as a full-time NFL back, but the rest of the comparisons were, in my mind, strong enough to overcome that question. In fact, you could even go back to college and say that both were overshadowed by a teammate, as Holmes backed up Ricky Williams for part of his career.
Of course, their measurables differ. White is about 5 inches taller and 20 or so pounds heavier than Holmes is. But it is not their body type, so much as their style of play that I wanted to compare, especially in terms of White’s potential impact in the NFL.
So while Bush and DeAngelo Williams are definitely exciting players and worth their lofty draft status, I just thought it was worth mentioning that, if used correctly, there’s a chance that the #3 back in this draft is actually a re-incarnation of a man who ruled the league for a portion of his career.