Dan
01-26-2006, 12:33 AM
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Sabermetric Football Analysis Part 4
The Best and Worst Teams
By Dan
First I would like to apologize for the delay in getting this article finished, it’s taken longer than expected and I’ve been busy. One of the most burning questions for all football fans is who the best team in history is. I’ve decided to explore this question sabermetrically, at least for the years since 1972 as well as the question of the worst team in football. I also broke down the best teams into Super Bowl winners and non-winners. It’s interesting to know that the Super Bowl winners had stronger schedules than the non-winners, meaning that they had played tougher teams in the regular season and were more prepared for the playoffs.
http://www.alittlemoretotheright.com/images/85chicagobears.jpgI was very happy to note that the top team by my rating system since 1972 is the 1985 Chicago Bears. The teams that I looked at in this category were the teams that finished the regular season with 14 wins or more in the regular season with 16 games or 13 or more wins in a 14 game season and won the Super Bowl. I also included the 1982 Redskins who went 9-1 in the strike-shortened season. These ratings are only based on the regular season, and they do not include the playoffs. The rankings of the 12 teams I analyzed are as follows.
1. 1985 Chicago Bears 29.7
2. 2004 New England Patriots 28.5
3. 1991 Washington Redskins 28.2
4. 1986 New York Giants 28.1
5. 1998 Denver Broncos 25.7
6. 1978 Pittsburgh Steelers 25.6
7. 1989 San Francisco 49ers 25.2
8. 1984 San Francisco 49ers 24.9
9. 2003 New England Patriots 24.7
10. 1976 Oakland Raiders 23.8
11. 1972 Miami Dolphins 23.5
12. 1982 Washington Redskins 18.5
http://www.halloffamememorabilia.com/images/products/MM-HELYFDOL72med.jpg
It’s interesting to note that despite their perfect record, the 1972 Dolphins do not rate that well by my ratings, they did not play a strong schedule. I was very surprised to see how well the 1991 Redskins rate, but they were a very good team. I’m not biased, but I’m glad the 85 Bears were number 1.
http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/washy_367103.gif http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/STL_996477.gifI also looked at the best teams that did not win the Super Bowl, and the 1983Redskins shared the top spot with the 2001 Rams. I considered teams with 14or more wins in a 16 game season or 13 wins in a 14 game season and did not win the Super Bowl. These rankings do not include the playoffs, only the regular season. The rankings are as follows
1. 1983 Washington Redskins 28.6
2. 2001 St Louis Rams 28.6
3. 2005 Indianapolis Colts 27.7
4. 1998 Minnesota Vikings 26.8
5. 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers 26.1
6. 1984 Miami Dolphins 25.3
7. 1986 Chicago Bears 25.1
8. 1990 San Francisco 49ers 24.4
9. 1992 San Francisco 49ers 23.2
10. 1998 Atlanta Falcons 22.1
11. 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars 20.1
12. 1982 Oakland Raiders 18.9
I expected this year’s Colts team to come out on top of this category, but as it turns out they are third, but the top that didn’t make it to the Super Bowl. 1998 was a very strong year with three teams in one of these categories.
The final category I looked at was the worst teams in NFL history. It was kind of depressing to look at the horrible ratings of some of these teams, but I got through it. I included all teams that won 1 game or fewer. The 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the worst with the lowest score possible, and they are the only team in history to lose all of their games. The rankings for worst team ever are as follows.
http://www.sptimes.com/2005/09/14/images-tbt/120/36oldlogo_fullCMYK.jpg1. 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -20.0
2. 1980 New Orleans Saints -19.7
3. 1991 Indianapolis Colts -19.2
4. 1996 New York Jets -17.5
5. 1989 Dallas Cowboys -16.8
6. 2001 Carolina Panthers -16.6
7. 2000 San Diego Chargers -16.5
8. 1972 Houston Oilers -15.5
9. 1973 Houston Oilers -14.9
10. 1990 New England Patriots -14.7
11. 1982 Baltimore Colts -10.8
There are no big surprises here, most people agree that the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the worst team ever. I was a little surprised that the 0-8-1 1982 Colts were as good as they were. I don’t have data on this, but I believe that the 1972-73 Oilers had the worst two-year run ever.
I doubt this conclusively answers who the best and worst NFL teams ever are, but it takes another step toward the answer. The data is according to http://www.profootball-reference.com and http://www.nfl.com. If anyone has any questions or comments, they may feel free to contact me.
Sabermetric Football Analysis Part 4
The Best and Worst Teams
By Dan
First I would like to apologize for the delay in getting this article finished, it’s taken longer than expected and I’ve been busy. One of the most burning questions for all football fans is who the best team in history is. I’ve decided to explore this question sabermetrically, at least for the years since 1972 as well as the question of the worst team in football. I also broke down the best teams into Super Bowl winners and non-winners. It’s interesting to know that the Super Bowl winners had stronger schedules than the non-winners, meaning that they had played tougher teams in the regular season and were more prepared for the playoffs.
http://www.alittlemoretotheright.com/images/85chicagobears.jpgI was very happy to note that the top team by my rating system since 1972 is the 1985 Chicago Bears. The teams that I looked at in this category were the teams that finished the regular season with 14 wins or more in the regular season with 16 games or 13 or more wins in a 14 game season and won the Super Bowl. I also included the 1982 Redskins who went 9-1 in the strike-shortened season. These ratings are only based on the regular season, and they do not include the playoffs. The rankings of the 12 teams I analyzed are as follows.
1. 1985 Chicago Bears 29.7
2. 2004 New England Patriots 28.5
3. 1991 Washington Redskins 28.2
4. 1986 New York Giants 28.1
5. 1998 Denver Broncos 25.7
6. 1978 Pittsburgh Steelers 25.6
7. 1989 San Francisco 49ers 25.2
8. 1984 San Francisco 49ers 24.9
9. 2003 New England Patriots 24.7
10. 1976 Oakland Raiders 23.8
11. 1972 Miami Dolphins 23.5
12. 1982 Washington Redskins 18.5
http://www.halloffamememorabilia.com/images/products/MM-HELYFDOL72med.jpg
It’s interesting to note that despite their perfect record, the 1972 Dolphins do not rate that well by my ratings, they did not play a strong schedule. I was very surprised to see how well the 1991 Redskins rate, but they were a very good team. I’m not biased, but I’m glad the 85 Bears were number 1.
http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/washy_367103.gif http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/STL_996477.gifI also looked at the best teams that did not win the Super Bowl, and the 1983Redskins shared the top spot with the 2001 Rams. I considered teams with 14or more wins in a 16 game season or 13 wins in a 14 game season and did not win the Super Bowl. These rankings do not include the playoffs, only the regular season. The rankings are as follows
1. 1983 Washington Redskins 28.6
2. 2001 St Louis Rams 28.6
3. 2005 Indianapolis Colts 27.7
4. 1998 Minnesota Vikings 26.8
5. 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers 26.1
6. 1984 Miami Dolphins 25.3
7. 1986 Chicago Bears 25.1
8. 1990 San Francisco 49ers 24.4
9. 1992 San Francisco 49ers 23.2
10. 1998 Atlanta Falcons 22.1
11. 1999 Jacksonville Jaguars 20.1
12. 1982 Oakland Raiders 18.9
I expected this year’s Colts team to come out on top of this category, but as it turns out they are third, but the top that didn’t make it to the Super Bowl. 1998 was a very strong year with three teams in one of these categories.
The final category I looked at was the worst teams in NFL history. It was kind of depressing to look at the horrible ratings of some of these teams, but I got through it. I included all teams that won 1 game or fewer. The 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the worst with the lowest score possible, and they are the only team in history to lose all of their games. The rankings for worst team ever are as follows.
http://www.sptimes.com/2005/09/14/images-tbt/120/36oldlogo_fullCMYK.jpg1. 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -20.0
2. 1980 New Orleans Saints -19.7
3. 1991 Indianapolis Colts -19.2
4. 1996 New York Jets -17.5
5. 1989 Dallas Cowboys -16.8
6. 2001 Carolina Panthers -16.6
7. 2000 San Diego Chargers -16.5
8. 1972 Houston Oilers -15.5
9. 1973 Houston Oilers -14.9
10. 1990 New England Patriots -14.7
11. 1982 Baltimore Colts -10.8
There are no big surprises here, most people agree that the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the worst team ever. I was a little surprised that the 0-8-1 1982 Colts were as good as they were. I don’t have data on this, but I believe that the 1972-73 Oilers had the worst two-year run ever.
I doubt this conclusively answers who the best and worst NFL teams ever are, but it takes another step toward the answer. The data is according to http://www.profootball-reference.com and http://www.nfl.com. If anyone has any questions or comments, they may feel free to contact me.