Dan
01-05-2006, 03:47 AM
Sabermetric Football Analysis Part 3: Analysis of the 2005 Season
By Dan
http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/lb7hv.gif
I know that this is a much anticipated article by a lot of the members of PSH, because I’ve talked about my power rankings for the last several weeks, so here are the final results. I had yet to factor in the rankings by record, only the ranking by rating, but now I have factored it in, so these rankings are now complete. I also made some slight modifications to my rating formula that I will explain in this article as well.
I felt that my rating system as it was put too much emphasis on margin of victory and not enough on strength of schedule, so I made some changes to change that. First I decided to double the strength of schedule factor, to make it go from roughly -10 to 10 instead of -5 to 5, this puts more emphasis on the strength of schedule. I also decided to give the margin of victory and strength of schedule have a maximum absolute value of 10, so if a team’s margin of victor factor was 12, they would only get credit for 10. This prevents a team’s rating from going too high because they blew teams out by a lot. The changes basically prevent the power rankings from favoring a team that beat up on weak teams.
The first step was to rank the teams by record using tie breakers to break ties. The results didn’t produce any real surprises and are as follows.
1. Colts 14-2
2. Seahawks 13-3
3. Broncos 13-3
4. Jaguars 12-4
5. Bengals 11-5
6. Steelers 11-5
7. Bears 11-5
8. Buccaneers 11-5
9. Giants 11-5
10. Panthers 11-5
11. Chiefs 10-6
12. Redskins 10-6
13. Patriots 10-6
14. Dolphins 9-7
15. Vikings 9-7
16. Cowboys 9-7
17. Chargers 9-7
18. Falcons 8-8
19. Ravens 6-10
20. Eagles 6-10
21. Rams 6-10
22. Browns 6-10
23. Lions 5-11
24. Cardinals 5-11
25. Bills 5-11
26. Packers 4-12
27. Jets 4-12
28. Titans 4-12
29. Raiders 4-12
30. 49ers 4-12
31. Saints 3-13
32. Texans 2-14
The next step in the process is to rank the teams by rating. I had been doing the rankings for the last few weeks of the season, so all I had to do was factor in the last week, which is much easier than doing them from scratch. The main surprise was how high the Chargers finished, 7th, ten spots higher than their rank by record, and this was mainly because of strength of schedule especially after their win over the Colts. The results are as follows and have already been posted in the general NFL forum.
1. Colts 27.5
2. Broncos 27.4
3. Seahawks 25.6
4. Steelers 19.8
5. Panthers 19.5
6. Jaguars 19.3
7. Chargers 18.6
8. Redskins 18.2
9. Patriots 17.6
10. Bears 16.5
11. Giants 15.3
12. Chiefs 13.1
13. Bengals 12.7
14. Cowboys 9.4
15. Buccaneers 9.1
16. Vikings 6.1
17. Dolphins 5.1
18. Falcons 2.4
19. Ravens -2.7
20. Eagles -3.6
21. Packers -3.9
22. Rams -5.2
23. Cardinals -6.6
24. Browns -6.7
25. Bills -7.7
26. Lions -7.8
27. Jets -8.2
28. 49ers -11.3
29. Raiders -11.3
30. Titans -15.9
31. Saints -18.5
32. Texans -19.2
The final step is to combine the two lists by adding up the rank in each category, with the ranking by record being the tie-breaker. I think that this gives a more complete reflection of the team’s performance during the season. There don’t seem to be any large deviations from what would be expected. The combined rankings are as follows.
1. Colts 14-2 Undisputed number 1, they had a great year
2. Seahawks 13-3 They had some big wins which helped them
3. Broncos 13-3 Most underrated team in football, toughest schedule
4. Jaguars 12-4 They’ll be dangerous in the playoffs
5. Steelers 11-5 They finished strong, and go into the playoffs hot
6. Panthers 11-5 They’ve been inconsistent, but are still dangerous
7. Bears 11-5 They have the best defense in football, and an improving offense
8. Bengals 11-5 It’s hard to predict how they’ll do, they didn’t finish well
9. Giants 11-5 There chances are better than many people think
10. Redskins 10-6 They finished strong, and have a good young team
11. Patriots 10-6 Not the same team they had last year, but still good
12. Buccaneers 11-5 Some big losses hurt them
13. Chiefs 10-6 They’re a playoff caliber team
14. Chargers 9-7 They were helped by their strength of schedule
15. Cowboys 9-7 Good bounce back year
16. Dolphins 9-7 Great way to finish strong and build up momentum for next year
17. Vikings 9-7 Tough year, but strong finish
18. Falcons 8-8 Just too inconsistent to win
19. Ravens 6-10 They needed a consistent QB
20. Eagles 6-10 Too much team turmoil
21. Rams 6-10 Too many injuries
22. Browns 6-10 There are better things to come for them
23. Cardinals 5-11 Better than their record indicates
24. Packers 4-12 Some really tough losses, and some big wins
25. Lions 5-11 They need a decent coach
26. Bills 5-11 Just a really tough season
27. Jets 4-12 They need to find a QB
28. Titans 4-12 They need time to mature
29. Raiders 4-12 They need to find a coach and a QB
30. 49ers 4-12 They will get better
31. Saints 3-13 They need a home
32. Texans 2-14 If they only had an offensive line
It’s interesting to note that with the exception of the Packers and Buccaneers, the teams are grouped by record. I’m pretty happy with the results; I always find it interesting to see the results at the end of the season. If anyone has any questions regarding this, please feel free to contact me. The statistics are from http://www.nfl.com.
By Dan
http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/lb7hv.gif
I know that this is a much anticipated article by a lot of the members of PSH, because I’ve talked about my power rankings for the last several weeks, so here are the final results. I had yet to factor in the rankings by record, only the ranking by rating, but now I have factored it in, so these rankings are now complete. I also made some slight modifications to my rating formula that I will explain in this article as well.
I felt that my rating system as it was put too much emphasis on margin of victory and not enough on strength of schedule, so I made some changes to change that. First I decided to double the strength of schedule factor, to make it go from roughly -10 to 10 instead of -5 to 5, this puts more emphasis on the strength of schedule. I also decided to give the margin of victory and strength of schedule have a maximum absolute value of 10, so if a team’s margin of victor factor was 12, they would only get credit for 10. This prevents a team’s rating from going too high because they blew teams out by a lot. The changes basically prevent the power rankings from favoring a team that beat up on weak teams.
The first step was to rank the teams by record using tie breakers to break ties. The results didn’t produce any real surprises and are as follows.
1. Colts 14-2
2. Seahawks 13-3
3. Broncos 13-3
4. Jaguars 12-4
5. Bengals 11-5
6. Steelers 11-5
7. Bears 11-5
8. Buccaneers 11-5
9. Giants 11-5
10. Panthers 11-5
11. Chiefs 10-6
12. Redskins 10-6
13. Patriots 10-6
14. Dolphins 9-7
15. Vikings 9-7
16. Cowboys 9-7
17. Chargers 9-7
18. Falcons 8-8
19. Ravens 6-10
20. Eagles 6-10
21. Rams 6-10
22. Browns 6-10
23. Lions 5-11
24. Cardinals 5-11
25. Bills 5-11
26. Packers 4-12
27. Jets 4-12
28. Titans 4-12
29. Raiders 4-12
30. 49ers 4-12
31. Saints 3-13
32. Texans 2-14
The next step in the process is to rank the teams by rating. I had been doing the rankings for the last few weeks of the season, so all I had to do was factor in the last week, which is much easier than doing them from scratch. The main surprise was how high the Chargers finished, 7th, ten spots higher than their rank by record, and this was mainly because of strength of schedule especially after their win over the Colts. The results are as follows and have already been posted in the general NFL forum.
1. Colts 27.5
2. Broncos 27.4
3. Seahawks 25.6
4. Steelers 19.8
5. Panthers 19.5
6. Jaguars 19.3
7. Chargers 18.6
8. Redskins 18.2
9. Patriots 17.6
10. Bears 16.5
11. Giants 15.3
12. Chiefs 13.1
13. Bengals 12.7
14. Cowboys 9.4
15. Buccaneers 9.1
16. Vikings 6.1
17. Dolphins 5.1
18. Falcons 2.4
19. Ravens -2.7
20. Eagles -3.6
21. Packers -3.9
22. Rams -5.2
23. Cardinals -6.6
24. Browns -6.7
25. Bills -7.7
26. Lions -7.8
27. Jets -8.2
28. 49ers -11.3
29. Raiders -11.3
30. Titans -15.9
31. Saints -18.5
32. Texans -19.2
The final step is to combine the two lists by adding up the rank in each category, with the ranking by record being the tie-breaker. I think that this gives a more complete reflection of the team’s performance during the season. There don’t seem to be any large deviations from what would be expected. The combined rankings are as follows.
1. Colts 14-2 Undisputed number 1, they had a great year
2. Seahawks 13-3 They had some big wins which helped them
3. Broncos 13-3 Most underrated team in football, toughest schedule
4. Jaguars 12-4 They’ll be dangerous in the playoffs
5. Steelers 11-5 They finished strong, and go into the playoffs hot
6. Panthers 11-5 They’ve been inconsistent, but are still dangerous
7. Bears 11-5 They have the best defense in football, and an improving offense
8. Bengals 11-5 It’s hard to predict how they’ll do, they didn’t finish well
9. Giants 11-5 There chances are better than many people think
10. Redskins 10-6 They finished strong, and have a good young team
11. Patriots 10-6 Not the same team they had last year, but still good
12. Buccaneers 11-5 Some big losses hurt them
13. Chiefs 10-6 They’re a playoff caliber team
14. Chargers 9-7 They were helped by their strength of schedule
15. Cowboys 9-7 Good bounce back year
16. Dolphins 9-7 Great way to finish strong and build up momentum for next year
17. Vikings 9-7 Tough year, but strong finish
18. Falcons 8-8 Just too inconsistent to win
19. Ravens 6-10 They needed a consistent QB
20. Eagles 6-10 Too much team turmoil
21. Rams 6-10 Too many injuries
22. Browns 6-10 There are better things to come for them
23. Cardinals 5-11 Better than their record indicates
24. Packers 4-12 Some really tough losses, and some big wins
25. Lions 5-11 They need a decent coach
26. Bills 5-11 Just a really tough season
27. Jets 4-12 They need to find a QB
28. Titans 4-12 They need time to mature
29. Raiders 4-12 They need to find a coach and a QB
30. 49ers 4-12 They will get better
31. Saints 3-13 They need a home
32. Texans 2-14 If they only had an offensive line
It’s interesting to note that with the exception of the Packers and Buccaneers, the teams are grouped by record. I’m pretty happy with the results; I always find it interesting to see the results at the end of the season. If anyone has any questions regarding this, please feel free to contact me. The statistics are from http://www.nfl.com.