Super Bowl Theory--Final Numbers

[jjflr]

http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/pshlogogreen3cc.jpg


Ok, we have all of the data now that the regular season is over. The 'Super Bowl winner' theory is ready to predict who will win this year's Super Bowl in Detroit based on a team's points scored and points allowed.

PLEASE READ: This theory does not predict the winners of each individual playoff game. It also does not ensure that the top 2 teams will meet in the Super Bowl. What it has historically done accurately is predict (out of the 12 playoff teams), which (1 or 2) teams have the potential of WINNING the Super Bowl. No team in the last 12 years has won a Super Bowl without fitting the parameters of this theory.

Here is the theory: The last 12 SB champs have ALL finished the regular season in the top 8 in the league in points allowed AND the top 6 in points scored UNLESS their D was far and away #1 (2000 Ravens or 2002 Bucs, for example). And EVEN THEN, their dominant #1 D’s still needed a middle-of-the-road offense to help them (In the top 20).

Several teams got 'close' this year with the enormous # of strong teams in the league this year. However, within the parameters of this theory, there are only 2 teams that qualify as teams that have the capability of winning it all this year.

TWO THAT FIT:

COLTS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/colt3.gif This team finished the season #2 in points scored AND #2 in points allowed. Their dominance on both sides of the ball shows that they are championship-worthy.

SEAHAWKS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/sea3.gif Their defense was 'just' good enough at #7 in points allowed to fit within the parameters. And of course, their offense finished #1 in points scored. This team is trophy-worthy, according to history.

THE REST (in order of how 'close' they came to fitting the theory):

BRONCOS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/den3.gif This team came SO close. They finished #4 in points allowed but only #7 in points scored. The data shows top 6 in points scored is necessary.

STEELERS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/pit3.gif This team ALSO came very close. They were a strong #3 in points allowed but only #9 in points scored.

PANTHERS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/car3.gif #5 Defense was good enough but they finished #8 in points scored.

BEARS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/bears3.gif #1 Defense has been dominant, obviously. They finished the season giving up an average of nearly 3 FULL points less a game than the next best team. However, their offense is only scoring 16 points a game, which is #26 in the league and even the Ravens and Bucs recent SB wins required better scoring than that.

GIANTS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/nyg4.gif #3 Offense that has been driven by the amazing Tiki Barber is sufficient but their #14 defense is not even close.

JAGUARS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/jag3.gif #6 Defense fits within the model but #12 offense will slow them down in the playoffs.

REDSKINS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/skin3.gif #9 in points allowed and #13 in points scored. Neither qualifies.

BENGALS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/cin2.gif #4 in points scored but #22 in points allowed. They are the Colts of the last few years before this season.

PATRIOTS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/pat3.gif #10 in points scored and #17 in points allowed. I know I will hear about this one but look up the data yourselves, Pats fans. This year's playoff team is nowhere NEAR the other 3. Look at the 3 SB-winning teams and you will see that they fit this theory EVERY SINGLE TIME. This year, they're not even close. The dynasty ends this year.

BUCCANEERS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/tam3.gif They have had a fun season but this is not a Super-Bowl winning team. They are #20 in points scored and #8 in points allowed.

[jjflr]

Oh, btw, several people have been wanting me to make my Super Bowl 'winner' prediction based on this model throughout the year and I have been explaining that the model would not be 100% complete until after week 17. Therefore, now that I have all of the information, my Super Bowl winner is (as always) based off of this theory:

The Colts (but the Seahawks wouldn't shock me)

[DirtyBird]

Dude that's exactly the way I see it too. This thing rocks JJFLR!

[anditsgood]

just a question jj,

if the 00 ravens and 02 bucs were exceptions because of thier d, wouldnt the bears also fit that mould?

[JungleKing]

The Ravens also had one of the top running offenses in the game. The Bears run game is good, but not that good.

[anditsgood]

PATRIOTS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/pat3.gif #10 in points scored and #17 in points allowed. I know I will hear about this one but look up the data yourselves, Pats fans. This year's playoff team is nowhere NEAR the other 3. Look at the 3 SB-winning teams and you will see that they fit this theory EVERY SINGLE TIME. This year, they're not even close. The dynasty ends this year.




another q jj

are you now saying theres no way the pats cannot win another superbowl within the next three years?

[Bruschibabe]

another q jj

are you now saying theres no way the pats cannot win another superbowl within the next three years?

No..He is saying that basicaly there is no way this Patriot team should even be in the playoffs. He hasn't given them a good word all season and I doubt he starts now...BTW they are seventh ( In the AFC..) in points scored not tenth...according to real rankings anyways.

I think this NE team is different because Brady is having the greatest year of his career, not only that but the Offense is much improved with the TE's and passing game not to mention two starting rookies on the O-line which have done decently this year IMO..The front seven are already playing at post season level and will only get better in the playoffs..
The defensive backfield is still in question BUT if the front seven dominate the way they have been, it will take that much pressure off the secondary. They have totally improved stopping the run and I think their D will play even better in the playoffs..
And NO I am not saying they will three peat at all but to count them out shows that some people haven't been following this team very closely the past 7 weeks...JMO

[ray1970]

PATRIOTS http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/pat3.gif #10 in points scored and #17 in points allowed. I know I will hear about this one but look up the data yourselves, Pats fans. This year's playoff team is nowhere NEAR the other 3. Look at the 3 SB-winning teams and you will see that they fit this theory EVERY SINGLE TIME. This year, they're not even close. The dynasty ends this year.



actually this years team would probably kick the crap out of the '01 team. the offense is far better than it was in '01.


as for the rest of your "theory", kinda goes with your "rankings".
they both have sucked all year long, why stop now.




-

[jjflr]

Ok, let me take these one at a time:


Dude that's exactly the way I see it too. This thing rocks JJFLR!

Have you heard of this trend also ? Let me know what you've researched on it. I'd love to hear.


if the 00 ravens and 02 bucs were exceptions because of thier d, wouldnt the bears also fit that mould?

OK, the data indicates that when there IS a dominant defense in a particular year, like the 00 ravens, 02 bucs, or 03 Patriots, it is defined as "the #1 team allows at least 1 FULL point less a game than the next nearest team". IF there is a dominant #1 team that fits these parameters, they must STILL have AT LEAST a top 20 scoring offense (remember, this theory shows 'balance' wins championships, NOT just defense). The Bears do not have a top 20 offense and the 3 teams listed above all did.


are you now saying theres no way the pats cannot win another superbowl within the next three years?

Good point. I did not mean to indicate that the formula in any way, shape, or form, predicts next year's results or the year after, etc. My statement that the Patriots dynasty would end this year was purely an opinon statement. The only thing the formula is 'guaranteeing' is that the Patriots cannot win the Super Bowl THIS year.

[Blackmallard]

We will see about the Bears. Grossman appears to have energized the offense and given them a passing game that will only make their running game look better. He only played in a few games though, so I suppose it just takes one "misstep" to bring it all down in the playoffs.

It is also very difficult to argue with a formula that is telling you exactly what you want to hear.

[jjflr]

It is also very difficult to argue with a formula that is telling you exactly what you want to hear.

I know you are more objective than that mallard. You're not just looking for someone to prop up 'your' team.

You would NOT have liked what the formula said last year, as you know.

Last year, the Colts did NOT fit the theory heading into the playoffs because their defense was somewhere around 20th in points allowed.

This year, they clearly do and are the favorites according to this.

[Bruschibabe]

Thanks for totally ignoring my opinions JJ..However, I don't think your give fair credit to a few of the teams in your rankings and NOT just MY team..
I think the Bears and their defense are being overlooked and the Buccs are as well..but thats just my opinion...

[TexecutedInTampa]

No..He is saying that basicaly there is no way this Patriot team should even be in the playoffs. He hasn't given them a good word all season and I doubt he starts now...BTW they are seventh ( In the AFC..) in points scored not tenth...according to real rankings anyways.

I think this NE team is different because Brady is having the greatest year of his career, not only that but the Offense is much improved with the TE's and passing game not to mention two starting rookies on the O-line which have done decently this year IMO..The front seven are already playing at post season level and will only get better in the playoffs..
The defensive backfield is still in question BUT if the front seven dominate the way they have been, it will take that much pressure off the secondary. They have totally improved stopping the run and I think their D will play even better in the playoffs..
And NO I am not saying they will three peat at all but to count them out shows that some people haven't been following this team very closely the past 7 weeks...JMO

Thanks BB! I had some questions about jj, and you answered them before I got my personal reply.

No sane football fan can count the Pats out....but Pats haters might need to, I understand that.

OTOH, way back in 2001 I counted them out before EVERY POST SEASON GAME.

I am still ashamed of that:(

[jjflr]

This year pretty much sucks for applying this theory to 'making money' since the Colts are EVERYBODY's favorite and there is more than 1 team that fits the theory.

Last year I was able to buy the Patriots for +500 because so many people had put their money on the STeelers, Colts, and Eagles and the Pats were the only team that qualified under my theory.

With THOSE odds, I bet money on the Patriots and won 5 times my bet. It was pretty cool. This year, I wouldn't make diddly sqwat betting on the Colts. I suppose I could put money on the Seahawks but the Colts would probably still win.

Here are the current Vegas odds to 'win' the Super Bowl next month:

Indianapolis Colts -160

Pittsburgh Steelers +1200

New England Patriots +600

Carolina Panthers +200 -- NFC favorite ?

Seattle Seahawks +450 -- This would be a great bet if the Colts weren't in the way

New York Giants +1500

Denver Broncos +550

Cincinnati Bengals +1400

Jacksonville Jaguars +5000 -- + 5000 seems a bit high, doesn't it ? You'd figure someone out there would take a chance on the Jags.

Washington Redskins +2800

Chicago Bears +900 -- All of you Bears believers out there that are talking up their defense will get a great return on your investment IF you truly believe.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2200

[Blackmallard]

Jacksonville Jaguars +5000 -- + 5000 seems a bit high, doesn't it ? You'd figure someone out there would take a chance on the Jags.


2005 Jacksonvile Jaguars. Either the worst 12-4 team ever or the most overlooked team in quite a while.

[Sway29]

People seem to go so much on indy being favorites and favorite teams always win, and the numbers showed it, where was new england rated at the start of the last playoffs, according to las vegas they where large underdogs at the bigging with 4 teams favord, its very rare a favored team wins...and it wont happen this year, it might not be NE but it wont be Indy

[Patzphanatiq]

what yer lil rankings doesnt take into effect is injuries ... the pats defense over the past 6 weeks is ranked in the top 5 in the NFL... even with all the starters mostly sitting against Miami....

There is more to it then just numbers.. momentum, home field, etc.

[Blackmallard]

People seem to go so much on indy being favorites and favorite teams always win, and the numbers showed it, where was new england rated at the start of the last playoffs, according to las vegas they where large underdogs at the bigging with 4 teams favord, its very rare a favored team wins...and it wont happen this year, it might not be NE but it wont be Indy

You have absolutely no idea how often the team "favored" to win by Vegas wins it all do you? I don't either, but it really looks to me like you are spouting jabber followed by "Colts lose"

[jjflr]

2005 Jacksonvile Jaguars. Either the worst 12-4 team ever or the most overlooked team in quite a while.

I don't think we can say definitively that they are the worst 12-4 team ever because there have been a lot of teams that have benefitted from easier schedules and won 12 or 13 games (the Bears a few years ago come to mind).

Also, I don't think they're necessarily being 'overlooked'...........everyone just knows that they are the 5th or 6th best team in a loaded AFC playoff picture, so they will need several miracles to get through it.

[jjflr]

People seem to go so much on indy being favorites and favorite teams always win, and the numbers showed it, where was new england rated at the start of the last playoffs, according to las vegas they where large underdogs at the bigging with 4 teams favord, its very rare a favored team wins...and it wont happen this year, it might not be NE but it wont be Indy

That's funny you said this because I KNOW New England wasn't favored by the 'public' last year to win the SB after the regular season but I ALSO know that this theory told us that only ONE team fit the parameters to be SB champion and it WAS the Patriots.............

Fact is, I would not pick the Colts or ANYONE to win it all without some sort of foundation to base it on............otherwise, it just puts me in the same category as all of the other homers on this board just going off of my 'feelings' and 'emotions'...................

[Blackmallard]

I don't think we can say definitively that they are the worst 12-4 team ever because there have been a lot of teams that have benefitted from easier schedules and won 12 or 13 games (the Bears a few years ago come to mind).

Also, I don't think they're necessarily being 'overlooked'...........everyone just knows that they are the 5th or 6th best team in a loaded AFC playoff picture, so they will need several miracles to get through it.

I don't think they are the worst 12-4 team ever either. I can not think of a definitively worse 12-4 team off of the top of my head or anything, but the Jags aren't a fluke or anything.

They are being overlooked though. According to the odds you have, aren't they considered over three times less likely to get out of the AFC than any other team? Is there really that big of a dropoff or are the other teams all benefiting from some sort of "hype"?

If the Jag's schedule was so easy that the 12 wins are pretty much meaningless then why is Indianapolis, who had pretty much the same schedule, such a heavy favorite? They both swept the AFC North they both went 3-1 against the NFC west, they both lost to the AFC west team they played and beat the AFC east team. The only part of that that was tougher for the Colts was that they played the Patriots and the Jags played the Jets. The only difference in their record is that the Colts swept the Jags in the regular season, so clearly the Colts should be favored but all the AFC playoff teams except Denver lost to Indy by more than the Jaguars, and The Steelers and Patriots lost by a larger margin in one game than the Jaguars did in two.

If the way the Jags barely have beaten some of the worse teams is cause to count them out, why are the Bengals, who have fewer wins against playoff teams and also had some close games against losing teams down the stretch and actually lost to the Bills, considered three times as likely to win it all? There is nothing that I can point to that gives the Bengals a huge edge like that over the Jags except that they got more positive press coverage since they are so sexy. (That was serious by the way. The Bengals ARE sexy.)

I understand exactly why the Pats are favored so heavily over the Jags, it has something to do with three Superbowl titles. They are favored what though, eight to one to win the Superbowl over the Jags? Do the Pats really match up that much better against everyone? Wouldn't four to one be sufficient?

Anyhow if I were to bet on a "longshot" this year I think I would take the Jags since at least then I would be not winning 50 times my bet instead of merely not winning 10-20 times.

They are being overlooked, or some of these other teams are being over-hyped. If all but one team is being over-hyped isn't that the same thing as it being overlooked according to relativity?

[jjflr]

Is there really that big of a dropoff or are the other teams all benefiting from some sort of "hype"?

It's hype



Do the Pats really match up that much better against everyone?

Depends on who you ask..........

[Blackmallard]

So far so good for the theory. Both "trophy worthy" teams made it to the second round, and four "pretenders" have now been eliminated.

[Blackmallard]

Only one "trophy worthy" team left now. Are you going to bet heavily on the Seahawks to win it all? I don't know the Vegas odds but if the chances of them winning are close to 100% then it would have to be a good return.

[jjflr]

Only one "trophy worthy" team left now. Are you going to bet heavily on the Seahawks to win it all? I don't know the Vegas odds but if the chances of them winning are close to 100% then it would have to be a good return.

I've got the rest of my money on the Seahawks in vbookie, so we'll see.

Did you notice how 4 of the top '5' teams under this theory are still alive ?

I haven't done a further analysis to determine if there is a historical correlation with playoff wins and points scored and points allowed during the regular season (it would take a LONG time)............but maybe I'll work on that next.

[TexecutedInTampa]

Only one "trophy worthy" team left now. Are you going to bet heavily on the Seahawks to win it all? I don't know the Vegas odds but if the chances of them winning are close to 100% then it would have to be a good return.

Ya know what? Of the 4 teams left, if I had to pick one that goes down tomorrow, it'd be Seattle. I can't pick the AFCC, it's too tough. But Carolina is on a roll, they have better coaching/game planning, more playoff experience.....I do see them winning 3 on the road to get to Detroit.

[Wolverine]

Yeah the formula did a ok job considering that 4 of the top 5 teams are in the conference title games

But I am still against these type of formula things. It doesnt take into account some of the more important things you cant take down in stat forum. You look at a case like the Steelers and Broncos, finishing their seasons on a winning note, the Steelers carrying their momentum into the first two rounds and the Broncos carrying their incredible play against the Pats.

Formulas just dont tell the full stories, and it's only fitting that the top team in that formula is out.

[jjflr]

well, but wouldn't you admit that under the NFL playoff structure, the Steelers entered the playoffs as the 11th best team in the league.

Under my formula here, it states that the Steelers were #4, so we now have a match-up in the Super Bowl of #2 and #4 instead of what most will be calling #2 vs. #11.

[Blackmallard]

So....what now? Does the formula get revised or does this year get chalked up to it not being 100%, but still pretty accurate, or does it get chucked completely?

[Ben Stiller]

So....what now? Does the formula get revised or does this year get chalked up to it not being 100%, but still pretty accurate, or does it get chucked completely?

We could add another qualifier (such as the #1 defense thing). The thing overlooked by the formula is Bens injury. If Ben were healthy all year, dont you think the Steelers could have scored 14 more points? Thats all it would take for them to meet the requirements.

[jjflr]

So....what now? Does the formula get revised or does this year get chalked up to it not being 100%, but still pretty accurate, or does it get chucked completely?

Let's not underestimate the incredible run that the Steelers had as a #6 seed beating 2 number one seeds, a number two seed, and a number 3 seed, none of them at home.......what they did this year has NEVER been done..........the Steelers run in the playoffs this year was unprecedented.

I believe the theory has merit. If you noticed, the theory did not call the Steelers the 11th or 12th best team in the playoffs, as the seedings did. The theory put them as the 4th best team before the playoffs started.

Also, the final 4 teams this year were in the top 5 of this theory and the only 1 that was not were the Colts, who were beaten by one of the final 4 teams.

However, the Steelers were the FIRST team in MANY years to win a SB without having a top 6 offense OR a dominant #1 defense............

This was definitely outside of the box.............WHY they were able to do it when dozens of teams before them were not ?...............I don't have an answer for that question thus far statistically or just from viewing it as a football fan and I don't know if I ever will.

As far as injuries, there is no consistency to any data showing that there can be adjustments made for injuries.

For example, last year the Patriots had MASSIVE injuries on the defensive side of the ball and still finished with the #2 defense in points allowed. There have been many cases of teams battling through key injuries to stay within the guidelines.

The Steelers are just the first to overcome not finishing within the theory (and starting as a #6 seed for that matter) and win a SB. Very bizarre.

In my opinion, this is the biggest 'upset', 'cinderella', 'fluke' (whatever you want to call it--in the HISTORY of the NFL and I would like to hear any challenges to this statement because I'm not finding another one EVEN CLOSE).

[Ben Stiller]

In my opinion, this is the biggest 'upset', 'cinderella', 'fluke' (whatever you want to call it--in the HISTORY of the NFL and I would like to hear any challenges to this statement because I'm not finding another one EVEN CLOSE).

I prefer to look at it as the greatest run ever.

[|(evin|(olb|(ritik]

Dont freak out on me Steelers fans, be sure to read all of my statements here before coming to a conclusion on my opinion.


I just cant buy into this whole "cinderella" junk. Does anyone else feel that way? To me the Steelers were never the #6 seed, its just a number to me, it OBVIOUSLY is no indication of the talent of a particular team.

This is a team that is one of the most well rounded in the league. They finished 15-1 and played in the AFC championship game last season. This year they hit a couple of rough spots early in the season, suffering a couple of QB injuries and they dropped a couple of games that they shouldnt have. At the end of the year they were just edged out of the division title and took a wild card berth in the playoffs at #6. But at no point could you have EVER convinced me that this was the 6th best team in the AFC or any kind of an underdog. They were always a powerhouse whose seeding was not appropriate. Toward the tail end of the season they were all healed up and ready to pick up where they left off last season, which they did as they dominated their way to a league title. Unexpected? Not if you were paying attention.

Now, I dont want to take anything away from their achievements, they did beat 3 good teams in the playoffs and a good one in the superbowl, but any team who wins the superbowl obviously went through some good teams. I am not going to sit here and say they were the underdogs in any of those games because they didnt play anyone who was out of their league. Doing it all on the road was tough but good teams like them dont get phased by road games. They were easily just as good as any of the teams they played throughout the playoffs.

Thats why I am not sure that the cinderella moniker fits. IMHO there wasnt a #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6 seed in teh AFC this year. There were 4 #1 seeds in Pitt, Indy, Denver, and NE, and 2 #5 seeds in Cincy and Jacksonville.

Lets keep the "cinderella" moniker untainted and not throw it around for a team who doesnt deserve it just because they were given a seeding that doesnt accurately fit them. If Jacksonville who was obviously the weakest of the AFC contenders, were the one to win the big game then you call them a cinderella. Cincy also would have made more sense than Pitt as a cinderella had they won it all.

[jjflr]

Dont freak out on me Steelers fans, be sure to read all of my statements here before coming to a conclusion on my opinion.


I just cant buy into this whole "cinderella" junk. Does anyone else feel that way? To me the Steelers were never the #6 seed, its just a number to me, it OBVIOUSLY is no indication of the talent of a particular team.

This is a team that is one of the most well rounded in the league. They finished 15-1 and played in the AFC championship game last season. This year they hit a couple of rough spots early in the season, suffering a couple of QB injuries and they dropped a couple of games that they shouldnt have. At the end of the year they were just edged out of the division title and took a wild card berth in the playoffs at #6. But at no point could you have EVER convinced me that this was the 6th best team in the AFC or any kind of an underdog. They were always a powerhouse whose seeding was not appropriate. Toward the tail end of the season they were all healed up and ready to pick up where they left off last season, which they did as they dominated their way to a league title. Unexpected? Not if you were paying attention.

Now, I dont want to take anything away from their achievements, they did beat 3 good teams in the playoffs and a good one in the superbowl, but any team who wins the superbowl obviously went through some good teams. I am not going to sit here and say they were the underdogs in any of those games because they didnt play anyone who was out of their league. Doing it all on the road was tough but good teams like them dont get phased by road games. They were easily just as good as any of the teams they played throughout the playoffs.

Thats why I am not sure that the cinderella moniker fits. IMHO there wasnt a #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, and #6 seed in teh AFC this year. There were 4 #1 seeds in Pitt, Indy, Denver, and NE, and 2 #5 seeds in Cincy and Jacksonville.

Lets keep the "cinderella" moniker untainted and not throw it around for a team who doesnt deserve it just because they were given a seeding that doesnt accurately fit them. If Jacksonville who was obviously the weakest of the AFC contenders, were the one to win the big game then you call them a cinderella. Cincy also would have made more sense than Pitt as a cinderella had they won it all.

I appreciate that argument EaglePhil.

However, NO #6 seed has ever won a Super Bowl.

Keep in mind that the Steelers had to WIN their last game of the regular season just to get into the playoffs. They were 1 game away from not even participating in post-season play.

Were they a good #6 seed................yes.

Did we all know going into the playoffs that they were the best #6 seed of all time?.......................no.

Hindsight is 20/20 and the fact is that the Steelers just accomplished something no team has ever done and I went back and analyzed ALL 40 Super Bowl champions and NONE, in my opinion, came close to doing what the Steelers did.

If you know of one, please let me know........................

[Wolverine]

Heres the thing with this..

The fact that they were a six seed was a blessing in disguise. It got them playing playoff football for weeks prior to the playoffs even starting. They were in the zone and they had a good team that had a less record cause of injuries.

The cinderella of the this story is the fact that all the games they won were against good teams on the road.

They are in no way a six seed, but thats were they were and they had to play as a six seed throughout the playoffs. Most people out there just didn't think Pittsburgh had a chance, because of their seeding. Thats the flaw in this and that's why people think it's cinderella.

It however is no cinderella. It's just dumb luck that they ended up in the sixth seed, but it's also a great thing.

Talentise no one was a six seed in the playoffs, but someone has to be it and it just so happens it was the Superbowl Champions that were the six seeds.

They did do something remarkable though, you can't take away 3 road wins and a Superbowl Victory, no one has done all that in the playoffs besides the Steelers.

[mhwolfgang]

I appreciate that argument EaglePhil.

However, NO #6 seed has ever won a Super Bowl.

Keep in mind that the Steelers had to WIN their last game of the regular season just to get into the playoffs. They were 1 game away from not even participating in post-season play.

Were they a good #6 seed................yes.

Did we all know going into the playoffs that they were the best #6 seed of all time?.......................no.

Hindsight is 20/20 and the fact is that the Steelers just accomplished something no team has ever done and I went back and analyzed ALL 40 Super Bowl champions and NONE, in my opinion, came close to doing what the Steelers did.

If you know of one, please let me know........................

Not being a fan of any team, you can't appreciate how the Steelers weren't a 6th seed except by numbers and a tough time in the season.
The Steelers were truly a contender, and a better team than some others ranked above them. Even your stat plan showed that.

The got to the Super Bowl by a harder route than they needed, but to call them a Cinderela team is absurd.

[nyGiants4life]

I guess this is the first year your theory has been discredited. I myself also do not think it is a Cinderella story. The Steelers were the BEST team in the AFC last year and they won it all this year with an injured Roethlisberger. If you think about it, the Steelers offense with Ben Roethlisberger was very efficient and deceptive. The defenes has always been shutdown, I did not think the Steelers would win it, for they had to beat the Colts in their house after being beat bad by them in the regular season. It's just a great season, not a cinderella season, not a '72 Dolphins season, a great season though, I'm sure when Ben Roethlisberger went down with the hyperextended knee alot of you Steeler fans freaked out, how lucky it was only hyperextended, I thought something could have been torn, that was pretty far back that his knee went!