If The Season Ended Today............

[jjflr]

If the Season Ended Today...
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We're 3/4 of the way through this season (not including tonight's action) and we can therefore start eliminating some of the contenders from the pretenders based upon the 'points' theory below.

This week, I will segment each above .500-team into one of 3 categories: "Trophy-worthy" (team(s) that would win it today), "Legitimate Contenders" (teams that could get 'there' by the end of the regular season), or "Unrealistic Chance to Contend" (too far out to have a realistic chance to contend under this theory).

Here is the theory: The last 12 SB champs have ALL finished the regular season in the top 8 in the league in points allowed AND the top 6 in points scored UNLESS their D was far and away #1 (2000 Ravens or 2002 Bucs, for example). And EVEN THEN, their dominant #1 D’s still needed a middle-of-the-road offense to help them (In the top 20).

This proves that BALANCE is what wins championships, not necessarily just DEFENSE.

This is the theory I use at the end of the regular season to predict who I believe will win the SB out of the 12 teams in the playoffs. It's worked the last 12 years. Some years there's only 1 qualifier, like last year. Other years, there might be 2. But I can at least narrow it down to 1 or 2 teams.


For example, last year the Eagles finished the regular season with the #3 D in points allowed but were #8 in points scored, therefore not falling into the theory. The Steelers were #1 in points allowed but not dominant enough to offset their #11 scoring offense. The Colts were #1 in scoring but their #18 points allowed wasn't going to get the job done.



Trophy-Worthy

COLTS :indy: (12-0) No surprise here. #1 in points scored. #2 in points allowed.

GIANTS :giant: (8-4) This might raise a few eyebrows. This team has the #5 scoring offense AND is #8 in the league in points allowed. That fits the theory.

Legitimate Contenders

BRONCOS :broncos: (9-3) They slipped out of the defensive parameters with the 31 points they gave up yesterday. They are still #6 in points scored, though, and are only #9 in points allowed so they just need their Defense to tighten up a bit.

PANTHERS :-panther: (9-3) Made strides on the defensive side and now sit at #3 in the league in points allowed. However, they are still only #9 in points scored and need to improve their scoring output to fit within the variables.

SEAHAWKS :seahawk: (9-2) Their offense is fine right now at #4 in the league but their D is only #11. My estimate is that they can only give up an average of 16 points or less over their last 5 games to get their D in the top 8. It's possible.

CHARGERS :chargers: (8-4) Their offense is at #2 and if they can tighten up their defense, only giving up about 15 points a game on average their last 4 games, they might just make it.

Unrealistic Chance To Contend

FALCONS :falcon: (7-5) This team is well-balanced but would need to win all 4 of their final games by about 20 point margins to fit within the model. Not going to happen.

PATRIOTS:-pat: (7-5) The Pats would have to shut-out their next 4 opponents to finish the season in the top 8 in points allowed.

BENGALS :bengal: (9-3) Their offense is obviously fine but they would need to hold their last 4 opponents to an average of about 12 points a game to finish top 8 in D. Possible but not realistic when they usually give up 20 a game.

JAGUARS :jags: (9-3) Their D is fine at #5 but their offense is going to need to average 40 points a game to finish in the top 6. Not going to happen.

STEELERS :steeler: (7-5) They would need to outscore their opponents in their last 4 games about 140-60. Possible but not realistic.

CHIEFS :kc: (8-4) Their defense can only give up 8 points a game the rest of the season. Not going to happen.

COWBOYS :cowboy: (7-5) Offense would need to score 40 points a game. Not happening.

BEARS :bear: (9-3) Bears would need to average 30 points a game in their next 4 just to get into the top 20 of scoring offenses to support that great defense. Anyone see that happening ?? Me either.

VIKINGS :viking: (7-5) I don't even understand how this team is 7-5. :confused: They have been outscored this year 273-219. That's not even close.

BUCCANEERS :bucs: (8-4) Courageous team but their offense would need to average almost 50 points a game to get into the top 6. The Colts can't even do that.

[Guy On Couch]

The Vikes are 7-5 because they saw how bad they were doing and have been fighting back. The only reason they're outscored by that much is because of the first couple of games when they were blown out by the Bucs and the Bengals.

[Parrish]

I don't like what you're basing this on. If a team has an amazing defense, they don't need to be a top scoring team (Bears, Bucs, Cowboys). I'm not saying these teams are going to win the Superbowl, but I think at least the Bears should be considered contenders. Oh yeah, I also don't agree with you on the Giants, Seahawks already beat them head to head and the Seahawks defense might be 11th in points allowed, but they're high in other stats that matter more.. like turnovers and sacks. If you cause turnovers a lot it's going to give your offense a better chance of scoring and with the #4 offense that's going to happen more often then not.

[jjflr]

Well, but Parrish, I've never been able to find a 12-year trend that shows that turnovers or sacks have anything at all to do with winning Super Bowls.

The theory looks at points scored and points allowed and right now the Giants fit the bill.............so do the Colts...........and there are 4 other teams that are close.

And the theory says that EVEN if a team is going to win it all with a DOMINANT #1 Defense (for instance, the 2000 Ravens or 2002 Bucs).........those teams STILL needed at least average offenses (they both finished around 16th in points scored for the season) and the Bears aren't even close to 16th right now.

This is the only true constant I have been able to find that consistently measures whether a team is trophy-worthy or not after the regular season ends.

[Parrish]

Weren't those teams offenses based on their great play by their Runningbacks though? Of course the Bears aren't going to be great on offense because their passing offense is garbage, their running game however, that can take them to the promised land.

[jjflr]

Let's look at the 2000 Ravens and the 2002 Buccaneers offenses compared to this year Bears:

The 2000 Ravens finished the regular season scoring 20.8 points a game

The 2002 Buccaneers finished the regular season scoring 21.6 points a game

The 2005 Bears are currently scoring only 16.8 points a game for the season

When we're talking about a 4-5 point difference a game--that's fairly significant.

Very simply, the Bears are winning games with a great defense in spite of their poor offense. They might even win 1, 2, or 3 playoff games with their great defense.

However, what the theory at the beginning of the thread says is that they would be the first team in a LOT of years to win the SB with such a poor offense. Therefore, I don't give them much of a chance.

[bigbucsfan80]

The Vikes are 7-5 because they saw how bad they were doing and have been fighting back. The only reason they're outscored by that much is because of the first couple of games when they were blown out by the Bucs and the Bengals.


We only beat you by 11 points.................that's not a blowout.

[Blackmallard]

How the hell are the Bears supposed to beat a great offense combined with a good or great defense? They can not shut out everybody every game. They look great with a lead, they will look very beatable if they fall behind early in a game unless the offense can find its way down the field.

They have only faced one top 5 offense all year, and they held it to 24 points, not 3. They will likely have to beat at least two, and quite possibly 3 of the top five offenses in order to win it all.

[XPetey]

COLTS (12-0) No surprise here. #1 in points scored. #2 in points allowed.

GIANTS (8-4) This might raise a few eyebrows. This team has the #5 scoring offense AND is #8 in the league in points allowed. That fits the theory.

That's been my Super Bowl pick for half the season...

[Blackmallard]

Hey yeah, Giants vs. Colts, Manning vs. Manning. Who wouldn't want to see that?

[Soel v25]

Hey yeah, Giants vs. Colts, Manning vs. Manning. Who wouldn't want to see that?


Me! Sorry, but you had to ask. Colts not much doubt, but I really doubt the Giants making it. One Manning is already too many for my tastes.:p

[XPetey]

If the Giants could make a field goal they'd have beaten the "best" team in the conference on the road...

[Tiki Tiger]

I wouldnt put the chargers in the L.Contenders list, they might not even make the playoffs

[GBneedsDCnOC]

Hey yeah, Giants vs. Colts, Manning vs. Manning. Who wouldn't want to see that?

big brother would dominate

[Blackmallard]

big brother would dominate

It seems that way. It can be really tricky to know how AFC and NFC teams are going to match up sometimes though.

Eli is undefeated in the playoffs and Peyton has never won a superbowl;)

[RaiderZord]

I wouldnt put the chargers in the L.Contenders list, they might not even make the playoffs

Read the topic of the thread. It clearly says "If the season ended Today". Only 2 NFL Teams have made the playoffs so far anyway and they are Indy and Seattle... all the rest listed might not even make the playoffs.

[Who Dey]

All I know is that I want another shot at the Colts. ;)

[Blackmallard]

Well after Monday's game Seattle is #7 in defense and the Giants are #9, which makes the "trophy worthy" section only half right. With Seattle taking on San Francisco next week and Cleveland (the #8 defensive team) going up against the Bengals I don't see them out of the top eight soon. Perhaps edit the post?

I have predicted a Seattle-Indianapolis Superbowl since week 8 (before that I had the Falcons winning the NFC, shows what I know)

[jjflr]

I have predicted a Seattle-Indianapolis Superbowl since week 8 (before that I had the Falcons winning the NFC, shows what I know)

I have a feeling that this formula is probably going to agree with you at the end of the regular season and then we'll see if both of you are correct after the playoffs............;)

The way the Seahawks defense is playing now to complement their offense............wow :wow:

[Blackmallard]

I have a feeling that this formula is probably going to agree with you at the end of the regular season and then we'll see if both of you are correct after the playoffs............;)

The way the Seahawks defense is playing now to complement their offense............wow :wow:

They have certainly been the most consistent NFC team all year. They have no bad losses , and the teams they "barely" beat are very good (except the 49ers)

The one thing about the formula.....The Colts and Seahawks do have easy schedules this year, so it will be much easier for them to be top 5 in offensive and defensive points than say the Giants or the Broncos who both have very difficult schedules.

[jjflr]

They have certainly been the most consistent NFC team all year. They have no bad losses , and the teams they "barely" beat are very good (except the 49ers)

The one thing about the formula.....The Colts and Seahawks do have easy schedules this year, so it will be much easier for them to be top 5 in offensive and defensive points than say the Giants or the Broncos who both have very difficult schedules.

Very true. However, I have not been able to find ANY correlation in the history of SB champions that shows a certain points scored/points allowed theory with difficulty of schedule as a meaningful factor in it.

Take for example the 1999 Rams. They had possibly the easiest schedule that has ever been handed to a team on a silver platter.

As we all know, they led the league that year in points scored but many don't know that they were also 4th in the league in points allowed (they only gave up 15.1 points a game that whole year).

Their defense actually ended up winning the NFC championship for them that year against the Bucs, holding them to only 6 points while their offense struggled against a formidable Bucs defense.

Let's look at 1999 and how this theory explains how everything went down:

At the end of the regular season, there was NO dominate #1 defense in points allowed. Jacksonville was #1 but the Bills were only 12 points behind them. For a defense to be deemed 'dominate', the #2 needs to give up 25 points or more than the #1 team.

Therefore, the only teams that were viable 'championship' material that year were the Rams and the Jaguars.

The Rams finished #1 in points scored and #4 in points allowed.

The Jaguars finished #6 in points scored and #1 in points allowed and finished the season at 14-2, which was the best record in all of football.

(NOTE: This is a very important point of this trend. If there is MORE than 1 team that fits the variables, the model does not guarantee that BOTH teams will make it to the SB. All it shows is that ONE of the teams will be the eventual SB champion.)

To continue, at the end of the 1999 season, (if you are a believer in this trend), then you would have declared that EITHER the Jaguars or Rams would win the Super Bowl. Obviously, when the Jaguars got upset by the Titans, you would have known the eventual SB champ was going to be the Rams.

You would have been certain that the 13-3 Colts were going to come up short due to their poor defense.

You would have also been sure that the Bucs were not going to win the SB with such a poor offense and only a #3 defense.

AND you would have known going into the Super Bowl that the Titans upset win over the Jaguars in the AFC championship game basically just guaranteed that the Rams were going to win it all.................

Last year (2004) was beautiful because only ONE team fit this theory at the end of the regular season (the Patriots).

Everyone else was betting on the Colts, Steelers, and Eagles to win it all after the regular season and I put my money where my mouth is with this formula and bet it 'all' on the Patriots.................I won a couple of thousand dollars off of this theory last year........I hope only 1 team fits the model again this year so I can make some more money as everybody else is betting on the 'flavor of the week or 'their' team'.............

[jjflr]

Just to give you an update after yesterday's games, the Colts remain a solid favorite with the #1 offense and #2 defense, however the Seahawks now join the party after 2 blowout wins and are sitting at #2 in offense and #4 in defense.

The other playoff-caliber teams are on the outside looking in:

The Bengals are #4 in offense but #18 in D

The Giants slipped to #11 in D but their O is still at #5

Denver is #7 in O and #7 in D so they are close.

Carolina slipped to #10 in offense which isn't going to cut it. Their D is solid at #5.

Other close teams:

The Steelers are #11 in offense and #9 in defense.

The Bucs #3 defense is good. Their #21 offense is not.

The Bears #1 D is dominant but their #24 offense is not going to get the job done.

and everyone's excited about the Patriots............they're #12 in points scored and #23 in defense. This team is not winning the Super Bowl this year.

[Blackmallard]

There is all sorts of evidence that points scored/allowed is a better indication of which teams are better than looking at their win/loss record or other factors such as yardage. Have you tried messing around with a trend based on Total Points-Total Points allowed? I know that the teams that fit your current theory would fare very well in that system also.

One thing that keeps me from buying completely into the current theory is the exception of a Dominant #1 defense being able to carry a middle of the road offense in. (how far down can an offense be in order for the defense to carry it in?) It stands to reason to me that the reverse must also true, a team that scored enough points would not need to be in the top eight in points allowed.

I think that the whole theory basically illustrates that the best teams win the superbowl and it uses a good indicator (certainly a better indicator than a fans emotional picks) of what the best teams are. If you think about it points scored and points allowed reflects the performance of offense, defense and special teams, and it also "weights" them, so using that as a basis for guessing the results of the playoffs is a sensible thing to do.

[jjflr]

One thing that keeps me from buying completely into the current theory is the exception of a Dominant #1 defense being able to carry a middle of the road offense in. (how far down can an offense be in order for the defense to carry it in?) It stands to reason to me that the reverse must also true, a team that scored enough points would not need to be in the top eight in points allowed.



The 2000 Ravens and 2002 Bucs still had top 20 offenses in points scored (around 15th-18th from what I recall). These teams had DOMINANT defenses (under the theory) but even the 1985 Bears had to have SOME offense to help that dominant Defense.........and ALL teams do............

[Blackmallard]

The 2000 Ravens and 2002 Bucs still had top 20 offenses in points scored (around 15th-18th from what I recall). These teams had DOMINANT defenses (under the theory) but even the 1985 Bears had to have SOME offense to help that dominant Defense.........and ALL teams do............

Right, but what is the cutoff? You said this years bears don't cut it, so how good would their scoring have to be? Top 20? top 18?

[jjflr]

Right, but what is the cutoff? You said this years bears don't cut it, so how good would their scoring have to be? Top 20? top 18?

I would say AT LEAST 18th.........I believe that's where the Bucs were......The Ravens were like 16th...........

[anditsgood]

i guess in a few weeks we find out if this is still true

only the seahawks seem to fit the bill

[jjflr]

i guess in a few weeks we find out if this is still true

only the seahawks seem to fit the bill

Yes, you are correct and here is the link to the 'final' numbers after week 17 where the Colts and Seahawks were the only 2 that fit the theory (and the Broncos, Steelers and Panthers were SO close).

http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/showpost.php?p=204263&postcount=1

The Colts are eliminated but I find it interesting that the 4 remaining teams are the 'next' 4 teams on the list, you will notice.

The Seahawks were the only team that truly fit the theory and is still left, as I have layed it out, but notice how CLOSE the Broncos, Steelers and Panthers came to qualifying. If any of these teams win it all this year, they will be slightly re-defining the parameters set forth.

[anditsgood]

Yes, you are correct and here is the link to the 'final' numbers after week 17 where the Colts and Seahawks were the only 2 that fit the theory (and the Broncos, Steelers and Panthers were SO close).

http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/showpost.php?p=204263&postcount=1

The Colts are eliminated but I find it interesting that the 4 remaining teams are the 'next' 4 teams on the list, you will notice.

The Seahawks were the only team that truly fit the theory and is still left, as I have layed it out, but notice how CLOSE the Broncos, Steelers and Panthers came to qualifying. If any of these teams win it all this year, they will be slightly re-defining the parameters set forth.

so jj

two things

one i would like to see how this formula of your work, just looking at the last say 6-8 games of the season (use just the playoff teams if you will). i always said its not how you start your season its how you finish it

two, got to give you credit for sticking by your assumptions and formula.