jjflr's week 11 Power Rankings

[jjflr]

This week again I will be including the total 'point values' for each team so that you can get an idea of how far/how close the teams are from one another.

There is log jam between #6 and #13 and then again between #18 and #26. Other than that, the rankings are setting up fairly solidly. There were no changes at all in the top 3 this week.

Biggest Movers:

Up:
Bears move from #12 to #9
Raiders move from #20 to #17
Cardinals move from #28 to #24 :happy:
Chargers move from #8 to #4 :hail:

Down:

Rams move from #17 to #22 :cry3:
Dolphins move from #24 to #28
Steelers move from #5 to #8
Bengals move from #9 to #12


1) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-0) :indy: 33.6547 The talk of 16-0 begins :bandwagon
2) DENVER BRONCOS (8-2) :broncos: 27.5250 Don't seem to be faltering in the 2nd half of the season as many predicted
3) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-2) :seahawk: 26.4051 What did almost losing to the 49ers mean ? :wow: Bad day?
4) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (6-4) :chargers: 23.8707 Leaving Gates, L.T., and Brees in the game when it was a blowout :confused: could come back to haunt them.
5) DALLAS COWBOYS (7-3) :cowboy: 23.7528 Big game on Thursday. Good test for this team.
6) CAROLINA PANTHERS (7-3) :-panther: 22.3383 I hope Morgan isn't out very long. He's a force for them.
7) NEW YORK GIANTS (7-3) :giant: 22.2204 Their O-line is banged up now. Hopefully not for long.
8) PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-3) :steeler: 21.2773 The Steeler fans I talk to blame this loss on Tommy. Come back soon Ben ! :toetap:
9) CHICAGO BEARS (7-3) :bear: 20.9826 On Sunday, the whole world woke up to just HOW GOOD this Bears Defense is............:wow:
10) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (7-3) :jags: 20.7469 Battling for the wild-card.
11) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-3) :bucs: 19.5681 Impressive coaching to get this team back on track after Griese went down.
12) CINCINNATI BENGALS (7-3) :bengal: 19.2734 Fun game to watch on Sunday. They hung in there on offense.
13) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-4) :kc: 19.1555 Impressive re-bound for the Chiefs. Is their offense back now ? What does it mean ?
14) ATLANTA FALCONS (6-4) :falcon: 16.9747 Two bad losses in a row at home, of course they typically play better on the road for some reason:huh:
15) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-4) :-pat: 16.5621 With no one to compete with, they will win the East. Then what happens come playoff time ? :huh:
16) WASHINGTON REDSKINS (5-5) :redskin: 14.9118 Loss on Sunday just finished their season :nono: unless they win all of their remaining games or maybe just have one loss
17) OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-6) :raider: 14.3814 They have not given up on Turner and each other. I'm impressed by their will.
18) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-6) :eagle: 12.3185 Four losses in a row. Yikes.
19) MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-5) :viking: 12.2006 Four WINS out of Five games. Too little too late, though ?
20) DETROIT LIONS (4-6) :lion: 11.4933 outclassed on Sunday. This offense is not good.
21) BUFFALO BILLS (4-6) :bill: 11.1986 They are a completely different team on the road vs. home :confused:
22) ST. LOUIS RAMS (4-6) :ram: 11.1397 They just don't have it anymore
23) GREEN BAY PACKERS (2-8) :-pack: 10.8450 Continue to play close in every game. Just can't 'finish' :(
24) ARIZONA CARDINALS (3-7) :cards: 9.9019 THERE was the offense we expected to see all year. Let's see if they can keep it up.
25) BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-7) :raven 9.7840 Big win on Sunday. Playing for pride now.
26) CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-6) :dawg: 9.6072 Good things keep happening in Cleveland. All hail Romeo. :hail:
27) TENNESSEE TITANS (2-8) :titan: 7.2496 Playing tough for a bunch of young kids. Future is bright.:cooldude:
28) MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-7) :-phin: 5.6582 Hopefully the injury to Zack won't keep him out too long.
29) NEW YORK JETS (2-8) :jet: 5.2457 Now playing QB for the Jets...........Ryan Leaf.........:nono:
30) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-8) :niner: 4.7741 Almost pulled off ANOTHER big upset. They seem to play better against good teams.
31) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-8) :saint: 3.7132 Playing admirably but only competing for the 1st pick in the draft.
32) HOUSTON TEXANS (1-9) :texan: 0.2358 This team is worse than I ever thought. They're a disaster. Who will coach them next year?

[Bruschibabe]

They win two in a row finally..are winning their division yet they move up one place on this thing? ...and you have the Chiefs above the Falcons but right below the Bengals??.. Bengals are winning their division, matched up pretty well with Indy and they are 12th??..Steelers beat the Chargers and have only lost 3 games yet they are below SD on the poll?..K..you lost me after the top 5..lol!!

I would answer your weekly question of what will they (NE) do in the play offs but I think I will let you watch them improve weekly and see what they are going to do for yourself..;)

JJ.. I seriously respect you as a member, your intelligent and very knowledgeable about the league but to be honest..these power poll things of yours hardly make sense..lol.
I do appreciate all the hard work you put into them tho...:)

[Tiki Tiger]

Please explain why you continue to hate the jags even after they beat seattle, cincy, pittsburgh, and score 30 points in 2 consecutive weeks. They shouldnt be below SD, Carolina, Pittsburgh and the New York Giants

[jjflr]

Please explain why you continue to hate the jags even after they beat seattle, cincy, pittsburgh, and score 30 points in 2 consecutive weeks. They shouldnt be below SD, Carolina, Pittsburgh and the New York Giants

Well, first of all, just to clarify, 'I'm' not hating on the Jags, in fact I like the Jags, I just plug in the numbers and whatever comes out, comes out.

The Jags are 7-3 and they are in the middle of the pack of 7-3 teams ?

How is that unfair ?

[jjflr]

They win two in a row finally..are winning their division yet they move up one place on this thing? ...and you have the Chiefs above the Falcons but right below the Bengals??.. Bengals are winning their division, matched up pretty well with Indy and they are 12th??..Steelers beat the Chargers and have only lost 3 games yet they are below SD on the poll?..K..you lost me after the top 5..lol!!



Thank you for the 'effort' compliment, I guess..............:chuckle:

To try and address a few of your questions........The Patriots are being brought down in this formula, as you know, because they have statistically one of the worst Defenses in the league. In addition, some of their losses have been by LARGE margins and their victories, as usual, are tight. And the formula does consider 'margin of victory' as a variable so all of it together doesn't bode well for the Patriots for this particular formula.

Let me throw it back onto you and ask you where YOU would personally rank your Patriots objectively in a ranking. :toetap: Which 7-3 teams would you put behind the Patriots and why ?

About the ONLY team personally that I might move them ahead of if it were my opinion are the Falcons and the Patriots are only four-tenths of a point behind them in the formula so it wouldn't take much for the Patriots to move ahead of them.

As far as your comments on teams that are 'winning their divisions', the formula only measures individual game results, it doesn't look at division leaders or wild-card leaders as a factor so it really doesn't matter if the Patriots are leading the East at 6-4 or the Chiefs are in 3rd place in the West with the same 6-4 record. The intention of the formula is to measure the worth of each individual team based on the variables and it's saying that the Chiefs are a better team right now even though they're in 3rd place and the Patriots are in 1st place.

I hope this helps explain a little bit for you. :)

[Azazel]

in general...and as a rule.....polls dont mean anything....

i personally like JJ's poles, and it makes sense, as much as a poll can....

u either like them or not.......if your team was high or low, your mind would change....

JJ

GREAT job, i appreciate the time an knowledge you lay on us every week, keep it up....as far as i am concerned, my team should be lower....

but then again, its my opinion.....

[jjflr]

in general...and as a rule.....polls dont mean anything....

i personally like JJ's poles, and it makes sense, as much as a poll can....

u either like them or not.......if your team was high or low, your mind would change....

JJ

GREAT job, i appreciate the time an knowledge you lay on us every week, keep it up....as far as i am concerned, my team should be lower....

but then again, its my opinion.....

Thank you very much for that. I appreciate it.

The Eagles continue to hang in the top 20 due to their VERY difficult schedule. Playing in the NFC East, they've got a tough game every week it seems.

[Blackmallard]

4) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (6-4) :chargers: 23.8707 Leaving Gates, L.T., and Brees in the game when it was a blowout :confused: could come back to haunt them.


Lots of stuff could come back to haunt this team. Gates being suspended, LT not getting the ball early, a fieldgoal turning into an Eagles TD. If they do not make it into the playoffs someone should do a best teams that missed the playoffs list, these Chargers just might be at the top of it.

I have one observation/question, I noticed that the Steelers point total went down by about 6/10ths of a point after a loss to the Ravens, and the Bengals went down by about a full point after they lost to the Colts. Is this due to the Bengals defensive score going down? It will balance out after next week I suppose, but there is no way that the Bengal's loss was worse than the Steeler's. Is there some other effect going on that is making the Steelers pull away a little despite performing worse?

[Blackmallard]

Well, first of all, just to clarify, 'I'm' not hating on the Jags, in fact I like the Jags, I just plug in the numbers and whatever comes out, comes out.


You have the Jags picked to miss the playoffs JJ. I still want to hear you say that they are going to blow it, and which two of the bottom nine teams are going to beat them to knock them out.

[jjflr]

I have one observation/question, I noticed that the Steelers point total went down by about 6/10ths of a point after a loss to the Ravens, and the Bengals went down by about a full point after they lost to the Colts. Is this due to the Bengals defensive score going down? It will balance out after next week I suppose, but there is no way that the Bengal's loss was worse than the Steeler's. Is there some other effect going on that is making the Steelers pull away a little despite performing worse?

It would be my pleasure to answer your very knowledgeable, well thought-out questions:

This will highlight some of the differences:

1) The Bengals lost at home vs. Steelers losing on the road--Steelers advantage
2) The Bengals lost by a larger margin--Steelers advantage
3) The early season games are starting to factor less in the formula--it is a weighted formula and the Bengals record since week 5, for example, is only 3-3, the Steelers are 5-2--Steelers advantage

IF the Bengals had lost that game Sunday the same way against someone simlar to the Ravens.......let's say the Browns.........then the Bengals would have dropped WAY more than they did.

The Bengals got huge credit for their strength of opponent this week.

It saved their butts, in fact, from a HUGE drop.

[jjflr]

You have the Jags picked to miss the playoffs JJ. I still want to hear you say that they are going to blow it, and which two of the bottom nine teams are going to beat them to knock them out.

Well, I had them losing to the Titans on Sunday and they squeaked out another win, so it kind of blew my theory, didn't it ?

I still think that someone from the AFC is going to finish 10-6 and MISS the playoffs, though. I suppose if the Jags slip up pretty bad against somebody then they could still lose out on a tie-breaker but their schedule IS super-easy, isn't it ???

[Soel v25]

in general...and as a rule.....polls dont mean anything....

i personally like JJ's poles, and it makes sense, as much as a poll can....

u either like them or not.......if your team was high or low, your mind would change....

JJ

GREAT job, i appreciate the time an knowledge you lay on us every week, keep it up....as far as i am concerned, my team should be lower....

but then again, its my opinion.....



Ron,Ron,Ron, was that a freudian slip, or were you trying to squeeze one by the censors?you personally like jj's what?;) :rofl:

[Azazel]

Ron,Ron,Ron, was that a freudian slip, or were you trying to squeeze one by the censors?you personally like jj's what?;) :rofl:



that would be poll.....not "pole"





lol


thanks soel.......:rofl:

[jjflr]

I didn't notice that the first time I read it..............:rofl: :chuckle: :lolcry: :groucho: :laughat: :p :D

Freaking hilarious !!!!! and it's plural........:confused: ..........I need to see a doctor...........

[Azazel]

I didn't notice that the first time I read it..............:rofl: :chuckle: :lolcry: :groucho: :laughat: :p :D

Freaking hilarious !!!!! and it's plural........:confused: ..........I need to see a doctor...........


or see a director here in hollywood.

[bigbucsfan80]

Any reason on the Jags being higher then the Bucs?

[jjflr]

It looks like there are 2 factors making the difference between the Jags and the Bucs:

1) The Bucs have 2 bad losses (Jets and 49ers). The Jags only have 1 (Rams) and the Rams aren't as bad as the Jets or the 49ers.

2) The formula is weighted. Therefore, as the season progresses, the games played 2-3 months ago don't factor as heavily. Over the past 7 weeks, the Bucs are 3-3 while the Jags are 5-1. This will affect it also.

[bigbucsfan80]

It looks like there are 2 factors making the difference between the Jags and the Bucs:

1) The Bucs have 2 bad losses (Jets and 49ers). The Jags only have 1 (Rams) and the Rams aren't as bad as the Jets or the 49ers.

2) The formula is weighted. Therefore, as the season progresses, the games played 2-3 months ago don't factor as heavily. Over the past 7 weeks, the Bucs are 3-3 while the Jags are 5-1. This will affect it also.


Ok, that sounds fair, do you include strength of schedule in it also?

[jjflr]

yes, strength of opponent, wins, losses, home vs. road game, margin of victory, and also D and O rankings are the main factors but it all does evolve as the season goes along.

[bigbucsfan80]

yes, strength of opponent, wins, losses, home vs. road game, margin of victory, and also D and O rankings are the main factors but it all does evolve as the season goes along.


Alright, that all sounds good to me!

Great job on these every week JJ!

[Blackmallard]

I still think that someone from the AFC is going to finish 10-6 and MISS the playoffs, though. I suppose if the Jags slip up pretty bad against somebody then they could still lose out on a tie-breaker but their schedule IS super-easy, isn't it ???

The Jags even own the tiebreaker, thats the best part! It is possible, but not likely, that SD could pass them in the tiebreaker. They only miss if they go 3-3 vs. Indy and five of the bottom teams in the league and everyone gets to 11 wins or if they wind up 9-7. I agree someone may be staying home at 10-6.

[Blackmallard]

It would be my pleasure to answer your very knowledgeable, well thought-out questions:

This will highlight some of the differences:

1) The Bengals lost at home vs. Steelers losing on the road--Steelers advantage
2) The Bengals lost by a larger margin--Steelers advantage
3) The early season games are starting to factor less in the formula--it is a weighted formula and the Bengals record since week 5, for example, is only 3-3, the Steelers are 5-2--Steelers advantage

IF the Bengals had lost that game Sunday the same way against someone simlar to the Ravens.......let's say the Browns.........then the Bengals would have dropped WAY more than they did.


The Bengals got huge credit for their strength of opponent this week.

It saved their butts, in fact, from a HUGE drop.

I buy that, I forgot that homefield factored into the points and I had a feeling there was something other than the two games (namely the Bengals are starting to lose credit for their great start) was going into the difference.

[jjflr]

(namely the Bengals are starting to lose credit for their great start) was going into the difference.

Yes, mallard, I designed it this way hoping that it would be a more accurate way to reflect how the teams should be ranked 'currently' while still not ignoring the season as a whole. I think it's a good mix.

[jjflr]

The Jags even own the tiebreaker, thats the best part! It is possible, but not likely, that SD could pass them in the tiebreaker. They only miss if they go 3-3 vs. Indy and five of the bottom teams in the league and everyone gets to 11 wins or if they wind up 9-7. I agree someone may be staying home at 10-6.

Mallard, I show the Jaguars have the head to head wins over Cincy and Pittsburgh but I don't think anybody is expecting them to be battling with either of those 2 teams for the last wild card. I think most people are assuming those 2 teams will be in regardless. Here is how I see it with the teams they are competing with:

Jaguars: 2 AFC losses and still have tough AFC games against the Colts and at Cleveland (9-3 conference finish ?)

Chargers: 2 AFC losses thus far (9-3 or 8-4 finish?)

Broncos: Head to head win over Jags-- Denver wins tiebreaker

Chiefs: 3 AFC losses but all 4 remaining AFC games are at Arrowhead so if they are going to finish 10-6 or better, they will probably finish 9-3 in the conference.

Would the Jaguars have the tie-breaker over the Chargers or Chiefs at this point if they all finished 10-6 or 11-5 and 9-3 in the conference ? I believe it goes to 'common games' as the next tie-breaker in this scenario and it's too early to start breaking those down. We could start looking at that in a few weeks, if necessary.

[Blackmallard]

Mallard, I show the Jaguars have the head to head wins over Cincy and Pittsburgh but I don't think anybody is expecting them to be battling with either of those 2 teams for the last wild card. I think most people are assuming those 2 teams will be in regardless. Here is how I see it with the teams they are competing with:

Jaguars: 2 AFC losses and still have tough AFC games against the Colts and at Cleveland (9-3 conference finish ?)

Chargers: 2 AFC losses thus far (9-3 or 8-4 finish?)

Broncos: Head to head win over Jags-- Denver wins tiebreaker

Chiefs: 3 AFC losses but all 4 remaining AFC games are at Arrowhead so if they are going to finish 10-6 or better, they will probably finish 9-3 in the conference.

Would the Jaguars have the tie-breaker over the Chargers or Chiefs at this point if they all finished 10-6 or 11-5 and 9-3 in the conference ? I believe it goes to 'common games' as the next tie-breaker in this scenario and it's too early to start breaking those down. We could start looking at that in a few weeks, if necessary.

You are absolutely right. I was mistaken, I thought that the Chargers were 1 game behind in-conference for some reason, but I was wrong:o .

The Jags are 6-2 in Conference and SD is 5-2, I think I thought they were 4-3 or something, I don't really remember:o :o . (I don't know what I was thinking) So the Jags are 1/2 game ahead in conference right now and they could be knocked out in a tiebreaker if they go 10-6 or SD wins out and Jacksonville goes 11-5.

I myself think that SD is the most likely not to make it, with the WC contender from the North being more likely to miss out than Jacksonville.

[jjflr]

It looks like the biggest movers in the week 12 rankings (before tonight's game) will be the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Vikings. The Vikings bottomed out in my rankings at #28 after their last loss in week 8 at Carolina when they were sitting at 2-5 but since then they have steadily climbed and could be #15 in the most recent rankings after winning their last 4 games.

The biggest drops will belong to the Lions, Raiders, and Buccaneers.