jjflr
11-09-2005, 10:18 AM
If the Season Ended Today...
http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/DisplayNFLSHIELDbw_710059_thumb.gif (http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/showimage.php?i=715&c=60) The last 12 SB champs have ALL finished the regular season in the top 8 in points allowed AND top 6 in points scored UNLESS their D was far and away #1 (Ravens, Bucs, for example). And EVEN THEN, their dominant #1 D’s still needed a middle-of-the-road offense to help them.
This proves that BALANCE is what wins championships, not necessarily just DEFENSE.
This is the theory I use at the end of the regular season to predict who I believe will win the SB out of the 12 teams in the playoffs. It's worked the last 12 years. Some years there's only 1 qualifier, like last year. Other years, there might be 2. But I can at least narrow it down to 1 or 2 teams.
Last year, the Eagles finished the regular season with the #3 D in points allowed but were #8 in points scored, therefore not falling into the theory. The Steelers were #1 in points allowed but not dominant enough to offset their #11 scoring offense. The Colts were #1 in scoring but their #18 points allowed wasn't going to get the job done.
I will be posting this information more frequently towards the end of the season.
However, just for fun, this is where the teams are currently and who would be the 'favorite' in my book if the season ended today.
Indy and the Bears are tied in points allowed, therefore, there is currently NO dominant #1 Defense. So the teams that 'could' win it all are going to have a #6 O AND a #8 D (keep in mind this is 'points' we are talking about, not yards).
The number that qualify under these criteria ?
One................guess who ? The Colts obviously. :indy:
They are #2 in scoring and tied for 1st in points allowed.
Who is close ?
On the Bubble teams:
The Giants :giant: are #1 in scoring and #10 in points allowed. They've got to shore up that defense a bit in the second half of the season.
The Steelers :steeler: are #5 in points allowed but are #10 in points scored.
The Bengals :bengal: are #3 in points allowed but #11 in points scored.
The Cowboys :cowboy: are #8 in points allowed and #13 in points scored.
The Seawhawks :seahawk: are #6 in scoring and #12 in points allowed.
The Broncos :broncos: are #7 in scoring and #14 in points allowed.
The Falcons :falcon: are #9 in scoring and #11 in points allowed.
These are really the only legitimate contenders I can see at this point. Any other team is going to need to go on a TORRID run in the second half of the season to make up ground. It's been known to happen. Anything's possible.
The one glaring team that is missing from the 'contenders' list that has a record of 6-2 or better right now ? The Panthers. :-panther:
They have a high scoring offense and currently rank #4. However, their defense is giving up over 20 points a game and sits at #19 in the league in this category.
For them to bring their Defense up to #8 status by the end of the regular season, my estimate is that they will only be able to give up an average of 14.0 points a game or less over their last 8 games.
We know they have the talent. It's just a lot to ask. Only 2 teams in the entire league have been able to do it in the first half of this year and NO teams did it last year. It's possible. We'll see what happens.
http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/files/7/DisplayNFLSHIELDbw_710059_thumb.gif (http://www.pigskinheaven.com/gallery/showimage.php?i=715&c=60) The last 12 SB champs have ALL finished the regular season in the top 8 in points allowed AND top 6 in points scored UNLESS their D was far and away #1 (Ravens, Bucs, for example). And EVEN THEN, their dominant #1 D’s still needed a middle-of-the-road offense to help them.
This proves that BALANCE is what wins championships, not necessarily just DEFENSE.
This is the theory I use at the end of the regular season to predict who I believe will win the SB out of the 12 teams in the playoffs. It's worked the last 12 years. Some years there's only 1 qualifier, like last year. Other years, there might be 2. But I can at least narrow it down to 1 or 2 teams.
Last year, the Eagles finished the regular season with the #3 D in points allowed but were #8 in points scored, therefore not falling into the theory. The Steelers were #1 in points allowed but not dominant enough to offset their #11 scoring offense. The Colts were #1 in scoring but their #18 points allowed wasn't going to get the job done.
I will be posting this information more frequently towards the end of the season.
However, just for fun, this is where the teams are currently and who would be the 'favorite' in my book if the season ended today.
Indy and the Bears are tied in points allowed, therefore, there is currently NO dominant #1 Defense. So the teams that 'could' win it all are going to have a #6 O AND a #8 D (keep in mind this is 'points' we are talking about, not yards).
The number that qualify under these criteria ?
One................guess who ? The Colts obviously. :indy:
They are #2 in scoring and tied for 1st in points allowed.
Who is close ?
On the Bubble teams:
The Giants :giant: are #1 in scoring and #10 in points allowed. They've got to shore up that defense a bit in the second half of the season.
The Steelers :steeler: are #5 in points allowed but are #10 in points scored.
The Bengals :bengal: are #3 in points allowed but #11 in points scored.
The Cowboys :cowboy: are #8 in points allowed and #13 in points scored.
The Seawhawks :seahawk: are #6 in scoring and #12 in points allowed.
The Broncos :broncos: are #7 in scoring and #14 in points allowed.
The Falcons :falcon: are #9 in scoring and #11 in points allowed.
These are really the only legitimate contenders I can see at this point. Any other team is going to need to go on a TORRID run in the second half of the season to make up ground. It's been known to happen. Anything's possible.
The one glaring team that is missing from the 'contenders' list that has a record of 6-2 or better right now ? The Panthers. :-panther:
They have a high scoring offense and currently rank #4. However, their defense is giving up over 20 points a game and sits at #19 in the league in this category.
For them to bring their Defense up to #8 status by the end of the regular season, my estimate is that they will only be able to give up an average of 14.0 points a game or less over their last 8 games.
We know they have the talent. It's just a lot to ask. Only 2 teams in the entire league have been able to do it in the first half of this year and NO teams did it last year. It's possible. We'll see what happens.