Defensive Ranking (Offseason PartII) [Archive] - Pigskin Heaven

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Crunked

07-15-2005, 11:33 PM

http://img134.echo.cx/img134/6740/crankin9yh.png (http://www.imageshack.us/)

Hello everyone, its time, I promised I would do this right before training camp and again before pre-season starts. There are always 16 teams that love me and 16 teams that feel I am off my rocker.....you decide which is true. For those of you who have never experienced the Crunked ranking system it works like this. In the off-season (any time there is not regular season games) Crunked uses the following formula, Coach + Personel gained-personel lost +Strength of schedule- off field distractions-injuries and hold outs divided by my gut feeling= Where the defense ranks. Commentary is free and usually very salty and sarcastic :) The bracketed number is where they were from the last ranking.

1. Pittsburgh http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/pit4cf.gif
This is where they finished defensively last year. Nothing has changed you EARN the right to unseat the champ.
2.(5) Jacksonville http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/jax3dd.gif
This team looks lean and mean, question Freddy's knee if you must, doubt Leftwich's maturity. Question the consistency of their recievers, but defensively, be afraid, be very afraid.
3.Baltimorehttp://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/bal3xb.gif
I really don't know what these guys are trying to do, we are a 4-3 team, no a 3-4 team, no a 4-6 team.....no matter the formation these guys ooze defensive talent, yeah they let Hartwell and Boulware walk, but look who they drafted on defense!, I call it a rub all the way around.
4.(8) Philadelphia http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/phi1ff.gif
T.O. may disrupt the offense, but this is a solid defensive squad and there hasn't been anything drastic happen to belay that, I still think they could improve here or there, but they are rock solid and could finish anywhere in the top 10 and I mean that as a compliment.
5.(7) New England http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/neng5ew.gif
There is no love loss here for a Colts fan, or for any fan that isn't a Pat fan. But lets give-em some props they have a rock solid defense.
6. (2) Buffalo http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/buf4rp.gif
I have been one of the few to sing the praises of this defense for the last two years. And for the record I predicted them as the number one defense last year, they finished number 2. They have let a little defensive love go, they say no harm no foul and although on paper I agree I need them to prove it please.
7.(6) Tampa Bay http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/tbay5bg.gif
They drop one spot simply because they are all one month older than they were at the time of my last poll, when I said they were getting old.
8. (10) Atlanta http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/atl7td.gif
These guys haven't really done anything that amazing to move up but the teams above them have earned a slide down the ladder, so Viola! Crunked's first defensive ranking gift of 05.
9. (4) Washington http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/was3nb.gif
If you are checking your note book make sure to highlight this as a temporary stay, in a real world game of chutes and ladders these guys are sitting on a chute called Sean Taylor.
10. (17) Carolina http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/car8on.gif
Consider this a suck up placement, and normally I wouldn't do this, but what the heck the season hasn't started yet. I really like the Panthers but I do not feel this team is as good as it was last year (insert Panther fan lambasting here) And in 04 they finished 17th with mega injuries, so I figure 10th without is more than generous.
11. St Louis http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/stl8bx.gif
Added some D, in the off season these guys stay right where I put them, for now (GSOT) they may actually move up once the season starts ;))
12. Minnesota http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/min7ot.gif
I want to put these guys higher, but they haven't played a down together yet so here is plenty generous for now.
13. (9) Miami http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/mia2sl.gif
Take team with great defense add a dash of new coach and 2 pinches of running back, stir a perfectly functional defense vigorously and you have a recipe for disaster. Saban is a good coach but for whatever reason he is stepping the Dolfins backward to take them forward (defensively speaking)
14.(18) Chicago http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/chi1lp.gif
My love child this year. I expected great things from these guys last years but Grossman and urlacher, Brown, Azumah all spending time on the pines due to injury hurt these guys bad. THe cry of the Panther fan, "it can't happen again" so I give these guys a level they could have achieved last year in the hopes they make me look good this year.
15. (19) San Diego http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/sand9zz.gif
Good team, good D, not a fluke, nuff said!
16.Kansas City http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/kanc8yr.gif
Another on paper story here, lets see what happens with a patchwork of free agents, boom or bust right?
17. (21) Arizona http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/ari0hw.gif
This is a good YOUNG defensive squad, look for them to show a little more consistency this year, and I will tell you now watch their safety....soon you will know his name, everyone will.
18. (20) Cincinnati http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/cin8ob.gif
Young and tough this might be the year they win #9
19.(23) NY Jets
Speed rushing ends in question, fluffy schedule last year, this year they take their lumps. This is a defense that will get better as the season progresses, you heard it here first
20. (15) Dallas http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/dal9sx.gif
Some may look at this as a slap in the face, but really this team is coming along nicely, they just arent ready for a straight up, "top 15" just yet.
21. (14) Denver http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/images/icons/den6bj.gif
I have made no secret about thinking this team is going the wrong way, Shanahan will find some way to win with what he has but I can't help but scratch my head at MOST of the moves they have made this off season.

These Teams have to earn their logo's

22. NY Giants
The offense will improve the defense, and that is sick and sad to have to say
23.(13) Cleveland
I had to slap myself back to reality. It is Crennel but its the first year of a rebuild lets be realistic.
24. Detroit
Young and unproven....you will see this comment alot
25. Houston
Young and coming, still not there yet boys a girls, but dern close.
26. Indy
Young and coming, still not there yet boys and girls and not quite as close as the Texans
27. San Francisco
New coach, new attitude, new coordinator, new scheme, same ole hold outs, they will play better than this rank in the second half of the season, but they will stink it up at first.
28. Tennessee
Young and unproven, they will be back 3 straight years of good picks, they are coming
29. Oakland
winner of the all geratric league adopts a speedy youth mentality. Pfft, no cohesion in what they are doing....... flailing at every appendage.
30. New Orleans
Under achievers anon, gets plenty of off season distraction to suck in a whole new way.
31. Seattle
There off season moves on defense are troubling to me they have added value to some positions on the D-side but I would argue they improved what was already good and still have the bad.
32. Green Bay
One thing to say, lets rebuild this sucka!

bigbucsfan80

07-15-2005, 11:44 PM

Good Article. Tampa at #7 is very likely. We are getting older but we can finish in the top 10 easy.

Razzy

07-15-2005, 11:49 PM

Good article, but the panther's aren't as good as last year? I hope your talking about before last year, like, before we were playing with half of our starters, because if your comparing our current team to our 2nd half team......blasphemy!

whizza1

07-16-2005, 12:28 AM

well done crunked. I don't have any real strong disagreements with your rankings. I think your pretty much on target. :cooldude:

Ball_Hawks

07-16-2005, 12:29 AM

Seattle should improve some this season. With Wistrom and Tubbs coming this season to make an impact. Tubbs is a strong and good pass rush DT. Wistrom is one of the smartest players in the NFL; he is never caught out of place. A Healthy LB core is an upgrade even if we lose Simmons and Brown (both hurt a lot). Sharper will be a big upgrade he can tackle and stay healthy. Also we will have depth at all the LB spots. We wont have 3 MLB starting at the same time. Losing Ken Lucas isn’t a big lose, yes he had a good season but he fell apart in the 2nd half of the Season. Seattle now has a slot CB they won’t have a safety on a Wr like they did in the Seattle big break down Vs the Rams. Hamlin, Boulware, Trufant, Dyson, Herndon. That’s a good young secondary.

Seattle had 1 person lose that they will miss with Okefor, but won’t be missed for the price the Cardinals paid. Getting Fisher for half the price. Lucas wont is missed when getting 2 good players on his level for the same price. 2 for 1 is always better.

1 word can tell the difference from Seattle of last year and this year. DEPTH!!! They should be ranked low but not 2nd to last.

Titans2032

07-16-2005, 01:30 AM

11. St Louis
Added some D, in the off season these guys stay right where I put them, for now (GSOT) they may actually move up once the season starts ;) )
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14.(18) Chicago
My love child this year. I expected great things from these guys last years but Grossman and urlacher, Brown, Azumah all spending time on the pines due to injury hurt these guys bad. THe cry of the Panther fan, "it can't happen again" so I give these guys a level they could have achieved last year in the hopes they make me look good this year.
I would say the Bears defense is better than the Rams defense.

The Bears have two powerful and quick defensive ends shooting off the line in Ogunleye and Brown, and they have a big force in the middle with Tommie Harris. He is very strong, and he puts a lot of pressure on the quarterback. He makes the offensive linemen back into the quarterback, and with the quick and strong ends coming from the outside, they make the opposing team's quarterback have to make quick decisions. The Rams only have Leonard Little. Hargrove is still a rookie, and we have not seen much from him, and the tackles Lewis and Pickett are both disappointing. To back them up is Jimmy Kennedy, and he has been bothered by injuries, and when he is healthy, he doesn't do anything at all. He was a bust. The Bears easily have a better line than the Rams.

Moving to the linebackers, the Bears have Brian Urlacher, and Lance Briggs who already put the Bears linebacking core ahead of the Rams'. The Bears linebackers are quicker, are better at stopping the run, and they are very good tacklers. Again, I would take the Bears linebacking core over the Rams without a second thought.

In the secondary, the Rams basically still have the same secondary as last year, expcept they lost Williams, and will be starting Michael Hawthorne at FS. The rest of the players they signed will be backups, so all they did was add depth here. The Rams corners are both small and both proved that they cannot tackle, and both get burned a lot in coverage. Archuleta is a good tackler, but last year he showed that he was pitiful in coverage, too. The Bears have a good physical cover corner in Charles Tillman, and a solid corner in Jerry Azumah. Mike Brown was injured last year, but Michael Green had a fantastic season, and I think Brown will have a soilid year for Chicago this season if he stays healthy.

Let's compare the two defenses:

Bears D-Line --> Rams D-Line
Bears linebackers --> Rams linebackers
Bears Secondary --> Rams secondary

The Rams front seven are terrible on stopping the run, and so the opposing running back always gets to the Rams secondary, and when he does, the Rams corners don't know how to tackle, so many running backs have a field day and run all over the Rams defense. And in the passing game, none of their defensive backs are very good on coverage, so they get burnt on pass plays, too.
The Bears defense is better than the Rams at every position. Chicago has better a better line, better linebackers, and a better secondary. I think they should be put ahead of the Rams.

The Gopher

07-16-2005, 01:35 AM

I think you have a very good guague of the defenses...and i agree with putting hte VIkings at 12 before they prove it...although i think they have the talent to reach the top 10....

RaiderZord

07-16-2005, 02:14 AM

Oak should be ranked 32 in every poll, Off, Def, Div, Wins. That way when they do better than 1 team, they proved you wrong ;)

I am very surprised to see you jump KC from Dead last in the league to 16 though. Your argument about Oak WRs not playing together warrents them not being one of the better trios, yet you take a Defense that was dead last in the NFL and add a couple FAs that have not even played and you bump them to 16th in the league from 32nd? hmmmmmm. Didn't see that one comin... lol

Crunked

07-16-2005, 10:28 AM

RZ, you make a good point,I guess I wasnt looking at it that way because a recieving core is 3-5 guys knowing each other intimately every move every audible etc, where I look at defense as 11 guys who have to cover their responsibility so the dynamic of how it works is a little different......but I see your point, I guess I should give that more consideration.

1of3ukcards

07-16-2005, 11:20 AM

Good comments about the Cards and their safety !!!! Interesting to see how Rolle steps up to the NFL

YoHoChecko

07-16-2005, 11:42 AM

Crunked uses the following formula, Coach + Personel gained-personel lost +Strength of schedule- off field distractions-injuries and hold outs divided by my gut feeling= Where the defense ranks.
When I read your rankings formula, I was immediately positive that Green Bay would rank last in your rankings. When you strat with a bad defense, then see that they added only 3 free agents and while they are solid, none of them are stars, they lost a player with a big name, thye play a tough scheule with an improving division, they have off-field distractions in Jackson holding out, Hunt skipping mini-camp (he always skips the voluntary stuff) and Al Harris being investigated for a strip club incident, with a generally negative perception (gut feeling) around the league, it was almost inescapable, even with a good coach like Jim Bates.

That being said, if Green Bay's defense isn't better than 25th this year (where they were last year) I'll donate 500 MVPs to the person of your choice. I have posted much of my reasoning for this several times, so I won't bother with it all (fairly lengthy)

As far as it being "time to rebuild [that] sucka'" most people don't realize that the reason it is bad is because they are already in the process of rebuilding. The defensive roster is loaded with rookies, second year and third year players that have talent, have promise and with good coaching will gel into a quality group (I'm not talking about this year--I'm talking the guys on the roster this year--but down the road)

So while I agree that under your formula, the Packers are going to rank very very poorly, I think that they will easily exceed your expectations this season--and that they already have much of the "rebuilding" done. Now they just have to wait for it to come together and add probably two-three more pieces to the puzzle

Crunked

07-16-2005, 11:52 AM

YoHoChecko

07-16-2005, 12:02 PM

I don't disagree with what you are saying at all, there are easily 8-10 teams in that list that will move dramatically once the season starts based on ACTUAL play, but its the off season and I am just trying to establish a loose baseline for the defenses so people can have an outsiders reality check of their team. It is easy for allo of us to be blinded by the love of our team and not see what we really have. I feel 89% of this to be pretty darn close, but its the off-season there can be no 100% until a ball is snapped for real.
I'd agree that most of your rankings seem to be right on, or darn close. I guess I forgot to mention that. I didn't even argue with the fact that under your formula for rankings, the Packers deserve to be at or near the bottom of the list. I'll now go one step farher and say that your formula for rankings is a good formula that will probably work in most situations. I imagine that if you look back at these rankings come the end of the year, you'll feel pretty good about them.

I just think that the Packers' defense last year looked so badly that their overall talent has been completely negated in the public perception. The thinking is that they only have bad players, or that they have too many of them--when the truth is that they only have a couple. They have young players who did not play well as rookies. They have mediocire players who can fill supporting roles but due to the youth on the team are being asked to fill leading roles--but they are not untalented. I think with a motivator like Jim Bates and the amount of young talent on the unit, this is a unit on the rise, rather than the other way around.

I know I am a fan and we're all homers to some extent, but I think I'm pretty fair in my reasoning. I've already predicted the Packers to go 9-7. I've already said that their running game will struggle early in the season. And I've already said that I don't expect their defense to finish anywhere above 16th in the league, barring some miracle. I was simply pointing out that while your rankings formula seems sound in most cases, I don't think it quite works in the Packers' situation.

Patzphanatiq

07-16-2005, 12:11 PM

Crunked

07-16-2005, 12:23 PM

Truthfully, it doesnt work for the Packers, Vikes, Chiefs, Seahawks and Colts...the Colts due to injury had to start 2 DB's and 2 Safeties that had no NFL experience whatsoever. It negated the Colts defensive talent completely last year. Finishing a deep 32 after the first 8 games. They ended up 29th for the year only because it took 3 weeks of good play to get them close to the then #31 defense Saints. So I feel what you are saying about the Pack and I agree. In the case of the Vikes and Chiefs, this formula gives them more credit than most, due to personel change so they tend to be over-inflated. In the case of the Seahawks the formula holds them down, so its not a perfect formula but it gets you in the ball park. I honestly expect the Pack and Colts D to finish higher than their pre-season rank indicates. In the case of the COLTS especially I will be the LAST to hype them until they prove it on the field, because homerism, IMO, detracts from the believability of the writer.

So in closing I agree with you, and I see your point and agree with it 100%, but its only the pre-season and someone has to be last LOL...BTW I am toying with the idea of doing individual team defensive breakdowns covering depth at positions coaching strategies, formation compensation etc. I think you would be an excellent candidate given your penchant for fact finding and analysis if you would like to partner in such an adventure PM me, and we could kick around some ideas.

Crunked

07-16-2005, 12:26 PM

I see the Patriots defense actually improving this year. They went out and got added depth at the LB and DB positions. The loss of Crenell wont be as big of a hit as people believe, since Mangini has couched with Belichik for 8 years, and knows his system inside and out. The big question will be if Bruschi is playing, since he is such an on field motivator for the team.

The pats are one of the harder teams to peg in the pre-season. I agree they have more on field talent, but then you subtract Crenel's presence and possibly Bruschi's absence. As a non Pat fan you have to wonder, if even the mighty Pats could become complacent and you begin to plug in doubt making it one of the harder teams to get an accurate read on before the season starts.

Patzphanatiq

07-16-2005, 12:37 PM

The pats are one of the harder teams to peg in the pre-season. I agree they have more on field talent, but then you subtract Crenel's presence and possibly Bruschi's absence. As a non Pat fan you have to wonder, if even the mighty Pats could become complacent and you begin to plug in doubt making it one of the harder teams to get an accurate read on before the season starts.

If its one thing the patriots are good at is noncomplacency. They take games one at a time and dont look forward at all...the belichick bible. I agree, though its going to be tough to rate them until all things are worked out: Seymore's hold out, Bruschi's status, and the ability of Mangini to grab hold of the top job and perform like Romeo.

With all that said, tho, It's this homer's position that they will be the same, but probably better this season. Last season their ranking was held back by their secondary, and they made strives to improve by picking up Starks, Charlon, and drafting Hobbs, increasing a ton of depth. Plus the addition of Chad Brown in the LB position isn't going to hurt.

CatClaw

07-16-2005, 01:16 PM

The defense that impressed me the most last season for their improvement had to be the falcons...i'm glad to see them get props in this article

kcangel

07-17-2005, 01:54 PM

16.Kansas City
Another on paper story here, lets see what happens with a patchwork of free agents, boom or bust right?

Ranked higher than I would have put them....but I agree with the boom or bust...I hope these offseason signings & draft signings work out...:)

steelhat55

07-17-2005, 02:39 PM

Will the Ravens be #3? Their must be a good reason nobody copied the 46 defense in a copycat league.

BigBenCan7

07-17-2005, 03:54 PM

If its one thing the patriots are good at is noncomplacency. They take games one at a time and dont look forward at all...the belichick bible. I agree, though its going to be tough to rate them until all things are worked out: Seymore's hold out, Bruschi's status, and the ability of Mangini to grab hold of the top job and perform like Romeo.

With all that said, tho, It's this homer's position that they will be the same, but probably better this season. Last season their ranking was held back by their secondary, and they made strives to improve by picking up Starks, Charlon, and drafting Hobbs, increasing a ton of depth. Plus the addition of Chad Brown in the LB position isn't going to hurt.

The Patriots did make their bench better. But, even with injuries, the Starters are the one's that win the game for you. I think that the Patriots will still have a top 5 defense, but I don't think they will be better than they were last year. Like Crunked said, they are very hard to peg, because you always think your team matches up well against them, and then they prove you wrong again. Crunked and I know all about this :) . On Chad Brown: It won't hurt them having him, but do you think that he's going to be good enough to replace Bruschi if he can't play?

Crunked

07-17-2005, 10:28 PM

Will the Ravens be #3? Their must be a good reason nobody copied the 46 defense in a copycat league.

This is true, and false. One it IS a copy cat league, but they haven't played a down in the 4-6 yet to know if it is still a viable defense in today's NFL. Therfore, there is yet to be anything to copy, if it works then you look to see who implements it in next off-season.

XPetey

07-19-2005, 01:38 PM

I think the Bengals will win #9 for sure. When I asked David Fulcher what he thought of the Bengals D he said "They're gonna turn a lot of heads if they stay healthy"

Good call on where they are now...but by the end of the year they'll be higher IMO

lawdog93

07-19-2005, 01:42 PM

Denver at 21? :rofl:

gomoss

07-23-2005, 02:08 AM

PhiliSaints12188

07-23-2005, 02:17 AM

I predict: that Burgess will have double digit sacks; Woodson will have a pro bowl season; rookies Hawthorne and Riddle will make suprise impact with sack, tackles for losses and turnovers; Collins will be top five AFC QB and be second behind Manning for TD's; and to make a long story short, Randy Moss will amaze the league with career season.

Pretty Bold predictions,

Burgess has never had more than 6 sacks in his career and hes only been healthy for 2 out of 4 seasons, where did that prediction come from?

I don't know much about Hawthorne and Riddle...

Sorry to deviate from defense, which the article is focused on but,

Its agreed that Collins will be a top 5 QB, Randy does that to people.

However, no way Randy Moss has a "career" season lined up next to Curry and Porter. His numbers will still be good though.

cv290

07-24-2005, 01:23 AM

Denver at 21? :rofl:

I have to agree with Lawdog here. :rofl:

I am thinking you didn't use your formula. The Broncos lost 3 starters from last years defense. Reggie Hayword, Donnie Spragan, and Kenoy Kennedy.

Reggie Hayword is gone, but Pryce is back. Pryce more than makes up for the loss of Hayword, plus the Broncos signed the Browns line, as backups mostly.

Donnie Spragan is replaced by the pickup of Ian Gold. Gold played in Denver most of his career and knows the scheme and other things much better than Spragan. He is also had a beter career and IMO more talented.

Kenoy Kennedy is a big loss IMO, he is an exellent player and will be missed in Denver. He will most likly be replaced by Nick Fergusan. Fergusan has a playing style much like Kenoys and should fit into the Broncos scheme.

So improving in 2 out of 3 places will drop the 4th ranked defense to 21st :confused:

anditsgood

07-24-2005, 09:44 AM

crunk

just one question

are you ranking d by points scored against or by yards

BigBenCan7

07-24-2005, 11:27 AM

crunk

just one question

are you ranking d by points scored against or by yards

Yes he is.

Crunked

07-24-2005, 12:05 PM

Crunked Wrote:

Crunked ranking system it works like this. In the off-season (any time there is not any regular season games) Crunked uses the following formula, Coach + Personel gained-personel lost +Strength of schedule- off field distractions-injuries and hold outs divided by my gut feeling= Where the defense ranks.

This of course is different from the "IN" season formula I use :)