Is the Supply for Quarterbacks About to Catch Up to Demand?

No. It's just been more of a passing league the last few years. There still won't be a ton of QB's that can play on the level of Brady, Brees, and Rodgers. There will still always be at least around 10 teams that don't have that good of a QB and around 15 teams that have a good starter.

This is an interesting assertion. Without doing any actual research, I suspect the volatility of QB performance as well as other circumstantial factors would inevitably create turnover at the position regardless of how it looks at any point in time. For instance, a QB's play could fall off or never take off in some instances (i.e. bust). Others could get hurt.

There are small windows where the turnover is less than others, but I dont imagine those windows are very long. Just looking at the list you posted, in two years lots of things could change. Jacksonville could have given up on Gabbert at that point, Palmer could be retiring again (Pryor is a non-factor IMO), Peyton could retire as well. Vick could be done with his speed deteriorated, Fitzpatrick could be given up on and released (only a fraction of his contract was guarenteed), Sanchez could be given up on (Tebow non-factor), Cassell could be given up on. The Kolb/Skelton experiment could end poorly. The 49ers could determine that they finally need a real QB, and Kaepatrick proves inadequate.

Just a combination of a few of these opens up a bunch of QB spots for new guys. I think this will always be the case, only the degrees will vary, but even then not by much.

Keep in mind that the Broncos just drafted Osweiler to develop behind Peyton Manning and the Patriots have Ryan Mallett behind Tom Brady right now. Drew Brees is only 32.

One of the things that is interesting to me is I think teams with average starters will be more likely to add another quarterback this year, because the value will be better to make such a move. If a good percentage of these quarterbacks work out, it could turn into a long era of this, but I think even if it is only happens for one year, it is a significant situation. You don't have a Ryan Tannehill going in the top 10 or a Brandon Weeden going in the 1st round.

Just like with any premium position such as defensive end or offensive tackle, the best are always going to go for the highest prices, but every other tier go at increasingly reasonable rates. When is the last time you could say that for the quarterback position? And it would be the first time for the league with 32 teams.

If a number of guys flop, the whole landscape will change, but for one brief moment, it seems like into in the 2013 draft and the following season, everyone will have an NFL caliber quarterback. How quickly it turns out a number of those teams will be wrong remains to be seen. To me, I just think it is an interesting snapshot in time for the quarterback position.

And here are 2 follow up questions related to this whole thing:

Does this signal the NFL is ready for expansion again? Personally, I hate the idea of expanding beyond 32 teams, but the biggest argument against making such a move is not having enough talent at the quarterback position to go around.

And is this the tipping point for when the NFL starts to push back the rules to start helping defenses? Or is this all going exactly according to plan in a move to have every team able to light up the scoreboard every week?

No one out of Christian Ponder, Ryan Tannehill, Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Matt Flynn, Kevin Kolb, Alex Smith and Sam Bradford have the kind of track record where they are necessarily going to be franchise QB's two years from now. The rookies may get a one year pass, but two seasons from now its easy to see any of those guy's teams looking to move on.

QB's get injured every year.

Tom Brady, Matt Hasslebeck, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, and Drew Brees are all at a spot in their career where they are possibly on their last NFL contract and could walk away at any time for any reason.

The only "stability" is coming from that free agency is settled and we won't see any shakeups until the season starts and people start underperforming and getting injured. Talk to me when the day one starters in 2013 are actually the same as the day one starters in 2012.

I'm going to throw out a couple of interesting scenarios here just as what if's.

-Dallas finally grows tired of getting to the playoffs and out with Romo.
-St. Louis gets impatient with Bradford after another subpar year.
-Christian Ponder bombs in Minnesota
-Kansas City pulls a Dallas earlier with Cassel (I believe they at least thought of pulling the rip cord early)
-Buffalo decides Ryan Fitzpatrick was just a lucky guy for 8 games
-Andy Dalton has one hell of a sophomore slump.
-Ben Roethlisberger finally takes one hit too many.

Point being, there's always more open quarterback slots than it appears in the NFL. This year has an unusually low number of obvious openings, but history dictates that good quarterbacks will fall on their faces and teams will pull the rip cord, perhaps too early, perhaps too late. You can almost guarantee that based on history, multiple somebody's are looking for a franchise guy next year.

I think this is part of the point.

If quarterbacks are going at better values, it makes it that much easier for these teams to bring in competition/eventual or immediate replacements. As the picks are rolling, teams will find themselves with the best player available being quarterbacks and pulling the trigger. This QB class does not have the elite talent of last years, but it makes up for it with numbers and a ton of depth.

Some of the QBs who could figure into the first 2 days of the draft and ones I plan to preview:

Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech*
Tyler Wilson, Arkansas
Matt Barkley, USC
Tyler Bray, Tennessee*
E.J. Manuel, Florida State
Landry Jones, Oklahoma
Aaron Murray, Georgia
Geno Smith, West Virginia
And my sleeper: Derek Carr, Fresno State*

Even if the juniors go back to school, there are 6 senior quarterbacks and there are some other guys that could move up quickly such as 6'6" Mike Glennon who has a cannon but is still raw or draftnik darling Matthew Sorenson from Southern Utah (Some people have him as a borderline 1st round talent already).