By Sascha Bartels
Published: July 29, 2008 PrintEmail
This is the third in a series of division previews. The AFC South and
NFC West have already been previewed, and can be viewed on the home
page. Also, all previews get debuted on the PSH radio show every
Tuesday evening at 8:00 pm Eastern time, so join us as Rob “Crunked”
Freet and Chris “Raiden” Grewe review and preview another week in
football. You can also listen to all previous broadcasts by going to be
Podcasts forum.
So, it’s time for the AFC East. And while
there isn’t any real discussion about who will finish at the top of the
division, the division did provide us with a lot of newsworthy events
over the last 6 months, starting with New England’s quest for 19-0
getting derailed at the final turn, Miami’s hiring of Bill Parcells as
well as their parting with Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas, New York’s
torrid free agency shopping spree, and Buffalo letting Toronto host
several Bills’ games over the coming years. But, on the football field
itself, there is little to no debate as to who will win this division.
Last year, the New England Patriots had to battle against football’s
best division, the NFC East, as well as the tough AFC North. This
season, they go up against the meager West divisions, where only San
Diego can be considered an upper echelon football team. Last year, the
Patriots finished 16-0. This year? 14-2 tops! It’s not so much that the
Patriots have gotten worse, even though they probably have regressed
slightly; it’s that the rest of the league is no longer scared. The
Pats spent the first couple of months steam-rolling their competition,
but since then, they were challenged well by all types, from Indy to
Baltimore to Philly and even the hated rival Jets. Every one of their
playoff games was a hotly contested affair, and New England finally
succumbed to the Giants’ defensive line in the Super Bowl.
This year, I see the Patriots losing at least twice. Once, to a
team that’s their equal (perhaps Indy or San Diego) and once more to a
team that is not (I’m looking at you Oakland). The talent level on this
team is still extremely high, but once again it has gotten a year
older. Will they continue to get the linebacker play that they’re used
to getting from Vrabel and Bruschi? Will the 35 year old Rodney
Harrison continue to be counted on to lead the secondary? Kevin Faulk
is 32, Randy Moss, Tom Brady and Adalius Thomas are all 31, or soon to
be. At some point, age will catch up to them, and then the question
becomes whether kids like rookies Jerod Mayo and Shawn Crable, as well
as the likes of Chad Jackson and Brandon Meriweather are ready to step
into bigger roles.
If the Super Bowl taught us anything, it is that the Patriots’
offensive line is no impenetrable, and the current issues surrounding
Nick Kaczur won’t help that too much. The Patriots will still have a
powerful offense and a better than average defense led by their line,
but they become beatable again this year. Just not by their division
opponents. New England wins this division in a landslide.
After the given that is the Pats’ division title, there are many
questions surrounding the rest of the division. Let’s begin in Miami,
where a new sheriff is in town, and he cleaned house in a hurry. Gone
are head coach Cam Cameron after just one year, replaced by Tony
Sparano, not of HBO fame as I’ve heard. Gone too are also Dolphins
lifers Thomas and Taylor, who both make their home in the NFC East now.
In are fresh faces, like Michigan teammates Jake Long and Chad Henne,
as well as defensive end Philip Merling, who will now be asked to
contribute much sooner than perhaps he and the Dolphins had hoped. The
Dolphins do boast perhaps the best running back in the division in
Ronnie Brown, and Long as well as fellow rookie tackle Shawn Murphy
should eventually stabilize the offensive line, this Miami team is
still many pieces away from finishing the puzzle. But I, for one, would
not bet against Parcells taking too long to whip this team into playing
shape. As for this year, staying out of the division cellar would have
to be considered success in Miami.
Next up are the New York Jets, who had to watch as their stadium
mates beat their most hated rival for the league title. Two years ago,
the Jets seemed poised to make a run as a perennial contender, yet,
last year it all fell back to earth for them. What went wrong? Well,
the offense was horrible, and the defense was at best passable for
average. And when you look a little closer, it appears that 2006 was
the abnormal year for the team, more so than 2007. Statistically, in
the two season, the Jets were quite similar, only two years ago, they
more or less lucked into 10 wins, while last season they won a mere 4.
This season, the result likely lies somewhere in between. I think the
defense could be quite improved despite the loss of Jonathan Vilma,
because newly acquired Calvin Pace seems like a better fit for the
scheme. Rookie Vernan Gholston could be a candidate for rookie of the
year. The Jets look very good in the secondary with young studs in
safety Kerry Rhodes and CB Darrelle Revis. If they can get anything at
all out of Kris Jenkins, it will be a good get for New York, but I
don’t believe they will. A first round DT next season could really fill
this defense out nicely, perhaps a Jeff Owens type could end up in New
York next year.
Offensively, the team’s main addition was guard Alan Faneca. He’s
only 31, but already has logged 11 seasons and 158 games in the NFL.
Was his substandard play last season a sign of things to come, or
merely the play of a man who no longer wanted to be a Steeler? That
question will have a lot of bearing on the rest of the offensive line.
Nick Mangold is already a top 5 NFC Center, and D’Brickashaw Ferguson
is coming into his own at left tackle. The other two line positions are
currently question marks, so we’ll see what training camp brings there.
I like the draft pick of TE Dustin Keller, though I don’t think the
trade up for him was necessary, and receiver Coles and Cotcherry are
nothing if not consistently productive, even with Coles now on the
wrong side of 30. But until a quarterback rises above the others and
establishes himself as the team’s primary signal caller, this team will
continue to be mired in mediocrity. Yes, Chad Pennington is a fan
favorite, and yes, he’s very accurate and smart, but his arm is just
not good enough anymore to make all the plays that are expected of an
NFL quarterback. The Jets should name Kellen Clemens the starting QB
early in training camp, and let Pennington be a premier back-up, at
this point he is nothing more than that. As for the team, I see a lot
of improvement, but another 3rd place finish.
Now, we go to the west side of the state, and check in on the Buffalo
Bills. And golly gee, what did we have last year? Well, I’ll take “The
NFL’s worst quarterback controversy for $600” Alex. One of these two
has to go. As nice at it would be to have a J.P. Losman caliber QB as
your back-up, the Bills situation will never be settled until only one
remains in town. If the Bills have centered on Trent Edwards, and I
think they’re leaning that way, then they have to find a way to trade
Losman, and, in return, get a good backup QB back to Buffalo.
The Bills’ season last year is fairly reminiscent of the one the
Jets had in 2006. Buffalo ranked 30th in offense, and 31st in defense,
yet managed to win 7 games. If the team doesn’t show marked
improvements in both areas, they could have a season similar to the one
the Jets just completed last year. However, I do not see this
happening.
First off, on defense the Bills will be helped by new tackle
Marcus Stroud, as well as seeing Paul Posluszny on the field for the
first time. The question may now become, what happens to the 2 years
younger, yet 2 years more experienced John DiGiorgio, who put together
a great season at middle linebacker last season in Posluszny’s absence?
And while I think DiGiorgio is a more prototypical MLB, he can find
success on the outside for Buffalo. Not as a pass rusher, but in a role
similar to the one Derrick Brooks has played in Tampa for over a
decade. And no, that is not saying DiGiorgio is as good as Brooks, just
that he could fill that type of role in Buffalo. The first round pick
was corner Leodis McKelvin. Was that a surprise to anyone? Four times
in the last ten drafts has Buffalo drafted a corner or safety in the
first round. Despite all that, the Bills are very strong and four deep
at the corner spot, and boast perhaps the league’s best safety duo
under 25 years old. I cannot see any way, other than injuries, where
the Buffalo defense could again be ranked 30th in the league.
The Buffalo offense? Well, nothing will surprise me there, though
at least on paper I would expect them to be better. I believe that
Buffalo’s offensive woes are not the fault of the QB’s, or the wide
receivers, even though they couldn’t decide on a QB and drafted a
receiver in the 2nd round. Buffalo’s trouble comes from what I think is
a very mediocre offensive line, with the obvious exception of Jason
Peters. Yes, most NFL offensive linemen come from the middle rounds of
the draft, but every once in a while you have to find yourself a gem in
the 1st or 2nd round. Since drafting Mike Williams 4th overall in 2002
and seeing him bust, the Bills have drafted the following. A center in
the 4th that they converted to guard, one tackle and one guard in the
5th, another guard in the 6th, and three tackles and one guard in the
7th round. Of those 8 draftees, only three are still with the team, and
that includes 2008 draftee Demetrius Bell, and none of them are
starters. This team would have been a lot better of this year drafting
Ryan Clady and Chilo Rachal then they may be with McKelvin and Hardy.
Of course, they would have had to trade up 2 spots for Rachal, but you
get my point. Whether Trent Edwards or J.P. Losman gets the nod, it
won’t make too big a difference until the team can find better o-line
talent. I think Marshawn Lynch is a great talent, I like Hardy playing
opposite Evans, and the Derek Fine pick was well done. Still, I don’t
think the offense will progress to any better than 22nd or so in the
league. They should win about the same amount of games on the strength
of their defense, but could be getting lapped soon by the Jets and
Dolphins, and that would be a shame, and a waste of what can become a
very good team.
13-3
7-9
7-9
4-12
