By Sascha Bartels
Published: July 15, 2008 PrintEmail
Well, the NFL season is a mere 8 weeks away, so it’s finally time
for the experts to chime in with their opinions and predictions. And I,
of course being the expert amongst experts, will naturally give you the
only predictions that are actually correct. So over the next 8 weeks, I
will be reviewing a division on the PSH radio show, and afterward the
preview will hit the forums. I hope you all enjoy listening and reading
them as I much will enjoy writing them, and I hope lots of questions
and comments follow both the radio show and the forum article.
So, where to start? I’m going to decide to hold off on the NFC
North until the Brett Favre saga has finished. Even though I will
already bet today that Favre will be starting Packers quarterback in
September. I believe, much like last year, that the 2 best and most
competitive divisions in football are the NFC East and the AFC South,
so I’m going to go start with one today, and finish with the other.
Yes, Eagles, Cowboys, Giants and fans of other teams in the division,
that means you will have to wait until it’s almost September for your
preview.
So, what’s new in the South? Well, not much to be honest. None of
the teams in this division made any huge splashes during the
off-season. Certainly, the Jaguars provided us with some nice
conversation topics, like will Jerry Porter be the answer to their
receiver question, and is David Garrard worth sixty million dollars?
The answer to those two questions could factor in heavily in the way
this division, and the AFC playoffs, play out.
For a couple of months now, I have been toting the Jaguars to win
this division. Even though I never believed them to be a better or more
complete team than Indy, I had a feeling they would concentrate more on
the division title than the Colts would. But then I thought, when is
the last time a Dungy coached team didn’t come into a season
concentrated? And since they are still the best team in this division,
it will, once again, be the Indianapolis Colts that win the division
and at least one nice new banner for the oil can.
Why the Colts? Simple. Add Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Reggie
Wayne and Dallas Clark to Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders and you get
the best team in the division, and perhaps in football. They haven’t
added any talent this off-season, and they haven’t lost any either, the
most significant name was probably Anthony McFarland, the oft injured
defensive tackle who got cut. The only distraction this team has had is
with Marvin Harrison, and that story has virtually disappeared. And
besides that, Harrison is already only the team’s second option at
receiver, and could be relegated to third by Gonzales. There really
isn’t much time that I need to spend on the Colts. Until they prove me
otherwise; they are the class of this field.
But, who finishes second? And will the division’s runner-up make
the playoffs? Last year, the South sent three teams to the post-season,
so placing two there again this season seems pretty likely. Last year’s
six seed, the Tennessee Titans, will not be that team however.
The Titans have proven to play hardnosed defense, without a lot of
offensive production to help that defense. Vince Young is now entering
his third season, and it is high time to get his ratings out of the
60’s and 70’s. Does he have it in him? Only time will tell for sure,
but I don’t believe he has the tools necessary to become an upper
echelon quarterback in this league. And if his late game heroics start
to fizzle, then so too will the Titans’ season. In his rookie season,
Young struggled to complete more than half of his passes. Last season,
that average rose to over 60%, but in the meantime he was throwing 2
interceptions for every touchdown. He does have a decent amount of
talent around him, including newly acquired Alge Crumpler, and a
breakout candidate at receiver with Justin Gage. The running back pool
is deep and fairly talented, but I still don’t understand the first
round selection of Chris Johnson. I think this team will remain a
middle of the road offensive team, which asks the question of how well
will the defense play? Last year’s defense ranked fifth against the run
and in total defense, and tenth in pass defense despite the suspension
of top corner Adam Jones. I believe this is a secondary that is
suspect, and I don’t believe they will have as easy a time defending
the pass this season as they did last, especially when playing teams
like the Colts twice. This is still a good defense, and a pretty good
overall team, but the Tennessee Titans will fall into last place in the
AFC South this season.
How do you like Houston’s luck? Generally, an 8-8 season
guarantees you a reprieve from the division cellar, but not last year.
The Texans finished with the even record, and still finished 2 games
behind the third place finisher. But not so this year. Houston will be
battling tooth and nail with Jacksonville all season long for 2nd in
the division, and they are a team hopeful of finding the post-season
for the first time in their existence. Meanwhile, Jacksonville made the
playoffs routinely during their early time in the league, with four
straight appearances in the post-season starting with their second year
of existence. Lately, they have again risen to playoff contender, with
appearances in 2 of the last three years.
Houston made a big splash last year with the signing of Matt
Schaub to take over as franchise quarterback. They have also built this
team around defense, which was most evident when they took Mario
Williams ahead of more popular choices Reggie Bush and Vince Young.
Williams joins another young lineman Amobi Okoye in the trenches, where
rookie Frank Okam may also see time at some point in the season. They
are complemented by DeMeco Ryans, and newly acquired Roosevelt Colvin
at linebacker, and Dunta Robinson is now joined by rookie Antwaun
Molden and free agent Jimmy Williams in the secondary. Meanwhile,
Jacksonville has prided themselves recently as having the best defense
in this division. But now, all three of their division rivals can make
a claim to have a better defense than the Jags do. That’s not to say
Jacksonville’s defense is bad, just that may not be what it used to be,
especially if they can’t overcome the loss of Marcus Stroud and the
constant injury problems of Mike Peterson. In the draft, they helped
themselves with the additions of DE Derrick Harvey and LB Quentin
Groves, but with John Henderson now commanding all of the attention
inside; can the line still be as efficient as in recent years? The Jags
currently look quite thin at linebacker, but a secondary now led by
safety Reggie Nelson should still be able to take advantage of
mistakes. But, when comparing the Jags and Texans on defense, I can’t
help but give the current edge to the Texans.
How about offense? As was mentioned earlier, the Texans made news
last off-season with the signing of Matt Schaub, but his debut season
as a starter was average at best. The franchise’s Achilles heel since
inception has been the offensive line, and it still is perhaps the weak
spot of the team, though they’re hoping that begins to change with the
addition of first round pick Duane Brown. I think the line will gel
more this season and give Schaub, or perhaps Rosenfels, more time in
the pocket. While the team is not empty at the skill positions, the
only player to really jump off the page there is Andre Johnson. Owen
Daniels had a nice season at TE, but the main questions for them will
likely be from the running back position. In Jacksonville, running back
is not an issue. Fred Taylor made the Pro Bowl last season, and Maurice
Jones Drew is widely regarded league wide as one of the game’s best and
most diverse runners. Another big question was answered last season,
when David Garrard stepped out of the shadows and into the spotlight at
quarterback, and had a terrific season, despite the lack of receiving
talent on the team. Jacksonville has addressed that problem with the
addition of Jerry Porter, who will line up with Reggie Williams in the
starting role. TE Marcedes Lewis caught 37 passes last season, and is
likely to play a bigger role in this one. Much like the defensive
advantage between these two teams surprisingly went Houston’s way, the
offensive advantage is just as surprisingly Jacksonville’s.
Of course, we haven’t yet claimed the race for 2nd place. But I
will now. The second place team in the AFC South will be the
Jacksonville Jaguars. I think the advantages they have over Houston is
mainly at quarterback, running back, and in history. Jacksonville is
and has been a contender in the AFC for a few years now, while Houston
will enjoy their arrival season in 2008. The Texans are well prepared
for the future, but in 2008, they will again end up watching the
playoffs from home.
So here are my final division predictions for this, the AFC South.
12-4 10-6 9-7 6-10
Stay tuned next week, when I preview the NFC West.
12-4
10-6
9-7
6-10