By Sascha Bartels
Published: August 5, 2008 PrintEmail
Welcome again to another edition of the weekly NFL previews. I hope you
had a chance to listen to the PSH radio show earlier this evening, but
if you didn’t, well, why not? Tonight we will take a look at the NFC
North. I almost decided to let the Favre saga play out another week,
but then I realized that the preview really wouldn’t change all that
much anyway, so here goes.
First, the Packers. Green Bay is in my opinion the only team that
would immediately improve with Favre’s addition to the roster, except
perhaps the Bears, who have not shown enough interest anyway. As of
right now, the story is that Favre is going to Green Bay to join the
open quarterback competition, and is there anyone here that thinks he
won’t win said competition? I do believe that Favre makes this team
about two games better this year than they would be with Rodgers at the
helm, which is bad news for the Lions’ playoff hopes. Once the Packers
have figured out their offensive plan, the rest of the cast looks
pretty good. Donald Driver is the seasoned veteran and leader of the
receiving core, and Greg Jennings, rookie Jordy Nelson, Ruvell Martin
and James Jones will slot in and find their catches as well. Tight end
Donald Lee could become the best Green Bay has had at that position
since the days of Keith Jackson and Mark Chmura. I’m not sold on Ryan
Grant as of yet, but only in as much that I want to see a full, good
season out of him first. But I do believe he was worthy of a new
contract, and I credit Green Bay for not breaking the bank on him. If
he does continue to do well, and becomes a top five NFL back, there is
plenty of time to rip up the current deal and get the big bucks. The
starting tackles are no longer the youngest in the league, and could
start showing signs of wear and fatigue this year. Overall, the Packers
offense is a fairly solid, unspectacular group of talent made better by
the addition of Brett Favre. Sorry to have to say it, but it’s true.
Defensively, the Packers have some young leaders, but may still
lose a step or two this year. With Harris and Woodson both looking at
the wrong side of thirty, I can no longer believe that they will be as
successful and impactful as they used to be. I do like the addition of
Patrick Lee, and I am also a fan of Jarrett Bush and Tramron Williams,
but I’m not sure how any of them would react if they were suddenly
moved into bigger roles. Aaron Kampman is one of the best linemen in
football today, but the Packers will miss the loss of Corey Williams to
Cleveland. The rest of the defensive line is really just average, no
real holes, but also no real studs. Which brings us to the strength of
the defense, the linebackers? Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk and Brady
Poppinga do not have to back down from any other team when the
discussion turns to best linebacking unit in the NFL. So, in summary, I
think the Packers will have an average offense if led by Aaron Rodgers,
which could sneak into the top ten under Favre, and also a fairly
average defense led by great linebackers and Kampman. With Brett at the
helm, I see about 10 wins for Green Bay.
The Minnesota Vikings will win a lot of regular season games. The
Vikings have two strengths, but they just happen to be at the two most
important aspects of the game. A dominant defensive line and a great
offensive line made even better by a phenomenal runner. Minnesota
should once again be at or near the top of the leader board in both
rushing yards for and against. But this year, the defense brings an
extra wrinkle, in the form of defensive end Jared Allen. Allen will
take this defense from being merely really, really good, to perhaps the
best we’ll see this year. Not only will Pat and Kevin Williams require
enough attention in the middle, that Allen will be single teamed a lot,
or doubled by a tight end, but also Allen’s continual assault on the
quarterbacks will make things a lot easier for the secondary. Antoine
Winfield is already one of the best corners in the league, and he will
be joined this year by safeties Madieu Williams and Michael Boulware,
while the competition for the spot opposite of Winfield will likely be
won by incumbent Cedrick Griffin. E.J. Henderson makes a lot of tackles
in the middle, and Ben Leber is coming into his own, but the leader of
the linebackers will likely be Chad Greenway this year. This is a
tremendous defense, and will be the main reason for Minnesota’s success.
I don’t believe the Vikings would win any more games this season
with Brett Favre than they would with Tavaris Jackson. But, if the
Vikings do still find a way to land Favre, then they would be better
prepared to succeed in the playoffs. As we stand today though, this
team will be led by the offensive line and Adrian Peterson, who really
could approach the 2000 yard goal he set for himself in the off-season,
though I think that total becomes less likely if Favre joins. Are we
supposed to get excited about Bobby Wade? Bernard Berrien? Not even the
Bears thought enough of them to re-sign them. I think eventually
they’ll get better, with Sidney Rice, but if the quarterback he plays
with can’t consistently deliver the ball, his learning curve will take
much longer. I currently see this team as being dominant in the regular
season, but unable to keep up with the best teams in football come
playoff time. But, no matter if Favre plays in Green Bay or in
Minnesota, the Vikings will win the division this year.
The Bears, on the other hand, could improve a lot with the
addition of a veteran like Favre, or really, any good veteran, but it
seems like Chicago continuously has their blinders on when it comes to
the quarterback position. For whatever reasons, Rex Grossman has proven
he can’t be consistently counted on. Fan favorite or not, Kyle Orton
has proven that he too can’t be consistently counted on. So, the Bears
are forced to make some moves right? Maybe they can acquire a veteran
who has seen better days, but can still get the job done. Perhaps a
Kerry Collins. Or maybe they can find a guy who has some talent, but
has spent most of his career as a back-up? Names like Shaun Hill and
Luke McCown come to mind. Maybe the Bears can just invest a high draft
pick, and work in a guy like Brian Brohm or Chad Henne. Nah, not
Chicago. What do they do? Well, they find Caleb Hanie. Who is Caleb
Hanie, you ask? Well, if you follow college football pretty closely,
then you do know who he is. He’s led Colorado State for the last couple
years, and racked up some nice stats in the process. But he was also an
undrafted free agent, and doesn’t really appear to be the addition this
team could have used. Oh, those Bears! The rest of the offense isn’t
much better anyway, but the Bears did draft quite well, adding Chris
Williams at tackle and Earl Bennett at receiver, both from Vanderbilt.
In between those two picks they picked Matt Forte, who will let Bears
fans quickly forget about the last guy they had carrying the ball. But
I ask myself, why so much effort in improving an offense, without
fixing the offense’s biggest problem?
Meanwhile, defensively, the Bears will not be the ‘Monsters of the
Midway’ this year. They still have some nice pieces in place, namely
Tommie Harris and Lance Briggs, as well as tackling machine Brian
Urlacher. I’m no longer excited about Ogunleye or Alex Brown. Mark
Anderson is merely a decent contributor benefitting from Harris’ inside
dominance. I don’t think we’ll see the 2005 versions of Nathan Vasher
and Charles Tillman anymore, and this team can and will be thrown on.
So, with an offense that’s working on improving everything but their
quarterback, and a defense that will no longer automatically win the
team 6 games, the Bears look to be in for a very rough season.
Then there’s Detroit. Sure, long a laughingstock of the NFL, but
laugh no more guys, and start taking a good look at this team. Perhaps
no team will be as hurt by Favre’s return as Detroit, as the Lions
looked ready to be the challenger to Minnesota, while now it looks like
they’ll have to contend with Green Bay first. The Lions continue to
turn around a lot of the team during the off-season, usually the mark
of a bad team, but Marinelli has mostly made the moves that will
continue to improve the team. Last season was the first sign of
improvement, as a 7-9 season really wasn’t as bad as the finish would
indicate. However, there was definitely some obvious room for
improvement, as the Eagles and Redskins games demonstrated perfectly.
So, what has Detroit done to improve? Well, first off, they fired the
man responsible for the best offense Detroit has seen since the mid
90’s. And that is a good thing? Yup, it sure is. The problem with the
Martz run offense was that it is an all or nothing approach. Sure, the
Lions gained a lot of yards, and many times they would score a lot of
points. But they also had way too many three and outs, and Martz
refusal to involve a running game, despite a good 2nd half from Kevin
Jones, led to his dismissal, and the Lions downfall. New addition Kevin
Smith could very well be a rookie of the year candidate this year, as
the Lions look to balance the offense. They are still loaded at
receiver with the same four that played last year (Roy Williams, Calvin
Johnson, Shaun MacDonald, and Mike Furrey) and the Lions could stand
losing one of those receivers next off-season and still have a very
good offense. Aside from poor play calling, the Achilles’ heel in the
Lions’ offense was the offensive line, and that too, looks to be
improved this season. First round pick Gosder Cherilus is a
prototypical Marinelli player. He may start his career playing right
tackle, but could move Jeff Backus there after a while. Backus
meanwhile, is not a bad tackle himself. While he was never good enough
to warrant the large deal he received from the Lions, he is still a
better tackle than many other teams in the NFL can claim. Dominic
Raiola is the center and captain of the line, and one of the better
centers in the league. The guard play is still going to be a question
mark, but the offensive line does look better than it has in years past.
Say what you want about adding so many former Bucs to this
defense. These are good players, and players very familiar with what
Marinelli and Barry want to run. Brian Kelly is certainly not the
youngest, but he should have a good season opposite Leigh Bodden.
Travis Fisher, Ramzee Robinson and Stanley Wilson should all look at
playing time at corner as well this season. With a healthy Daniel
Bullocks being joined by Dwight Smith, safety play will also be
improved. And sometimes a team has to add by subtracting, which the
Lions did by letting ultra-talented but habitually out of shape and
disinterested tackle Shaun Rogers go to Cleveland. In his place, yet
another former Buc in Chartric Darby. DeWayne White could see a tougher
time getting to the quarterback, but he is a complete defensive end and
will still be a force on running plays as well. Rookie Andre Fluellen
could eventually take over the starting spot from Darby, and 2nd year
man Ikaika Alama-Francis will soon be seen opposite of White at the
other DE spot. Another rookie, Jordon Dizon, joins Ernie Sims and Paris
Lennon in another talented, young, group of linebackers. But mostly,
the defense will also be helped by Martz’ departure and the return to a
balanced offensive plan. Only the 49ers and their inept offense gave up
more time of possession than the Lions. This year’s defense should see
a lot less of the field. The Lions will make it an unheard of three NFC
North teams with winning records this season.
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