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By YoHoChecko
Published: October 3, 2007
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The Green Bay Packers have made believers out of many this season, but still several more seem to repeat time and time again that the running game will eventually hold them back. The Packers' rushing attack is being heralded as the worst in the league, thanks in part to their 32nd rank in total yards per game and 32nd rank in yards per carry. However, as we all know, conventional statistics almost never tell the whole story. Actually, conventional statistics, alone, usually tell you almost nothing.

As a statistics fan and lover, I often get irritated with those who point out that statistics are meaningless or that they can't tell you anything. It is simply the proper use of statistics that matters. Anyone can tell you that the Packers rank low in yards per game because they have hardly run the ball at all, and that they rank low in yards per attempt because they have played some stiff run defenses, or because they stink. I, however, endeavor to look further into the Packers' rushing statistics and figure out just how bad of a running team they are, really; and in doing so, reveal how much or how little the team should be worried.

First of all, I'm going to start with something many will see as irrelevant or unfair, but I will remove Brett Favre's kneel downs from the Packers' rushing statistics. It may not be fair to remove kneel downs for the Packers and not anywhere else in my calculations, but the fact of the matter is that for most teams, they barely register. However, because the Packers have attempted so few rushes, in general, and won all four games, Brett Favre kneel downs account for 9% of the Packers' carries this season. In fact, by simply removing 7 kneel-downs for -8 yards, the Packers' rushing average goes from 2.75 yards per carry to 3.13.

So right there, we find that being in position to win the game and run out the clock combined with the infrequent rushing attempts has led to a downgrading of the Packers' ability to run the ball.

A more pressing issue is how good are the defenses the Packers are facing? Looking at run defense in terms of yards allowed per carry, it turns out that the teams are quite stout against the run. The Vikings and Eagles, particularly, rank in the league's top 3 teams against the run at 2.5 and 3.3 yards per carry, respectively. The Giants and Chargers also come in with good numbers at 4.0 and 3.9 yards per carry. Of course, the skeptic would point out that each of these four teams has had the advantage of playing the Packers' lousy run offense for one quarter of their season-to-date total.

For the skeptics, I offer this piece of information. Excluding the games against the Packers, these four teams have held their other opponents to a measly 3.59 yards per carry. That would rank as the 8th toughest run defense in the league, if it were a single team. That performance has not come against rushing cream puffs, either, with foes including the Patriots, Cowboys and Eagles who all average over 4.5 yards per carry, along with the Redskins and Giants who still average 4.0 or more.

This makes it easy to see that on average, some pretty strong rushing teams are being held to 3.59 yards per carry against the Packers' four opponents. Considering that the Packers are averaging around 3.13 yards per carry excluding kneel downs, the running game might not be in such bad shape as many assume.

Make no mistake, the quality of the Packers' run game is below average, but these numbers indicate that it might only be a small margin below average. 3.13 yards per carry accounts for 87% of the 3.59 allowed by Packers opponents, leaving the Packers rushing game merely 13% below average.

In light of this information, it appears that the Packers have been wise in avoiding the run up until this point, but that their long-term situation is not as bleak as many imagine. While their next two opponents, the Bears and Redskins, both have fairly strong run defenses at 3.4 and 3.9 yards per carry allowed, the Packers will get a respite after their bye week.

With ten games remaining on their schedule at that point, the Packers will play 7 games against opponents who are allowing at least 4.0 yards per carry thus far. Three of those games come against teams giving up 4.8 or more yards per carry at this juncture.

So while the Packers running game is struggling right now, all is not as bad as it seems. And while the actual quality of the rushing attack may or may not improve as the young backs and offensive line gain more comfort, the numbers almost assuredly will down the stretch, given the level of competition. So there's no need to rush to judgment on the Packers' running game.  It's just one more example of what statistics can show you, when properly applied.



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