By YoHoChecko
Published: October 20, 2008 PrintEmail
If you look at the first ten years of Manning's career, there can be a pretty clear distinction drawn between the first 5 years and the second 5 years.
For the first five seasons, Manning was a developing QB with a lot of strengths, but not yet truly elite. He threw too many interceptions and hadn't taken his game yet to the highest level. Here are the numbers:
First five years 1749/2817, 62.1%, 20618 yards, 7.3 ypa, 138 TDs, 100 INTs
Some notable trends in these five years: -only once was his completion percentage above 63% -his highest ypa was 7.8 -only once did he throw more than 27 TDs -his lowest INT total was 15 (twice)
Now let's look at the numbers for his second 5 years.
Some notable trends for years 6-10: -he has zero seasons with a completion percentage below 65% -his lowest ypa was 7.8 -he has zero seasons below 28 TDs -he has thrown fewer than 15 INTs in each season.
It's easy to see that Peyton's first 5-year peaks are very similar to his next 5-year valleys, so to speak. He clearly took his game to a different level in those years. However, in this current 11th season of his career, returning from an offseason injury to his knee, his numbers look nothing like they have in years 6-10. While it may simply be a disconnect or rustiness due to his injury, it's possible that Peyton's career is entering phase three, where he will continue to be a solid, mentally sharp QB, but fall from the graces of the elite.
This season, Peyton has completed less than 61% of his passes. He averages only 7.1 yards per attempt. Most concerning, he has only 8 TDs in 6 games and an eye-opening 7 INTs. That puts him on pace for 21 TDs and 19 INTs. These numbers would be low even by the standards of his first five seasons, so even a rebound in the second half of the season is unlikely to rescue his numbers. Just as importantly, his team is feeling his struggles. The Colts are off to their worst start since they went 4-4 in--you guessed it--Manning's fifth season.
