The prevailing thought in the NFL is that the ‘Home’ team has an inherent advantage over the visiting team on any given Sunday. While in general this theory is correct, the myth is that it pertains to each and every team. This could not be any further from the truth.
In regards to betting and point spreads, the common opinion is that you just add 3 points to the home team for their ‘advantage’. While on average, it may be true, as it pertains to individual teams, this also could not be any further from the truth.
Many teams enjoy a LARGER than 3 point home field advantage while many teams don’t have a home field advantage at all. They actually play better on the road (maybe they enjoy being away from the wife and kids from time to time like I do and it shows on the field).
Let’s look at some examples. 2 of the better home teams over the past few years have been the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs. The difference in these teams when they play on their own turf is almost night and day. Looking at 2005, 2006, and thus far in 2007, the Colts are an astonishing 18-1 at home. Almost unbeatable. They score an average of 28.6 points a game at home and only give up 15.5. This is an average margin of victory of 13.1 points a game. On the road, however, they are less successful, going 13-5 over the same time period, but more shockingly, scoring fewer points, 27.1 a game, while giving up almost a TD more a game to the opponent, 22.2 a game. This makes their average margin of victory only 4.9. The difference between the Colts at home and the Colts on the road is a full 8.2 points a game.
Always a solid home team, the Kansas City Chiefs are even more extreme. Over the same time period as the Colts, the Chiefs are a very solid 14-4 at home. Their offense puts up 24.7 points a game at home and only gives up 17.7. Conversely, on the road this team has a paltry 7-12 record, only scores 18.6 points a game and gives up 21.3 a game. Therefore, at home this team outscores their opponents by a full TD on average and on the road gets beat by nearly a FG on average. This is almost a TEN-point difference. Is 3 points enough of a ‘home field advantage’ or ‘road-team disadvantage’ for this team? Obviously not. It’s actually a 4 or 5 point spread depending on where and who they’re playing.
Some of the other teams that appear to legitimately enjoy a 3-point or more advantage at home over the past few years include the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, and Seattle Seahawks, among others. These teams actually look considerably ‘better’ when they play at home than they do on the road.
However, there are obviously 2 teams involved in a given match-up and there ARE some teams that actually play better on the road. The most extreme example is the Carolina Panthers. This team is year in and year out a better road team than a home team (I guess they’re taking southern hospitality to the max when welcoming competition into their own stadium—they’re just trying to be nice, eh?).
Over the past 2 and ¼ seasons, the Panthers have posted a mediocre 9-9 record at home, while at the same time posting one of the best road records in the league at 13-6. Their road record is nearly as good as the super-powers of the league during the same time-span. Breaking it down, the Panthers offense puts up about the same amount of points regardless of WHERE they play, 19.2 at home and 19.3 on the road. However, their defense likes to leave home, allowing 21.8 per game at home but shutting opponents down to 16.6 per game on the road. So, they’re being outscored at home by 2.6 points per game but they outscore their opponent by 2.7 per game on the road? That’s a 5.3 point per game improvement when they leave their friendly confines. The confines apparently aren’t too friendly.
The New England Patriots also pride themselves on being able to win games on the road. This is a team that has gone 14-4 on the road the last 2 and ¼ seasons, best in the NFL, while still posting a respectable 13-6 home record, but nowhere near best in the league. In fact, it’s basically just ‘above average’ for a record at home.
They score more points on the road, 27.1 to 24.1, and allow fewer points 17.1 to 17.5 In a nutshell, this is a team that beats their opponent on the road by 10 points a game but can’t beat them on their home field by a touchdown with an extra point. Here is another case of a team that should have a ‘Road-Field Advantage’ when you really sit down and look at it.
Some other teams that seem to play ‘as well’ or better on the road the last few years include the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints (hurricane-affected), and Atlanta Falcons.
The first question all of this brings up is, “What does it mean?” It basically means that we shouldn’t automatically think that the home-team has an advantage and, specifically, we shouldn’t just assign 3 points as the advantage. Depending on the match-up, there may be much MORE than a 3-point advantage or they may be LESS than a 3-point advantage and, in some extreme cases, there may actually be a ROAD-team advantage.
For example, right now, if the Panthers and Patriots were lined up for a game, the Panthers, based on history, would have a MUCH better chance of knocking off the undefeated Patriots in Foxboro. The Panthers play better on the road and the Pats play worse at home. It would literally give the Panthers the best chance of winning to be at New England based on the evidence.
Looking at the strong home teams, if the Chiefs had played the Colts last year at home in the playoffs instead of at Indy, they may not have won, but they would have almost assuredly given them a much tougher game than the pathetic performance we saw from them in the dome.
The second question this brings up is, “Why do some teams enjoy a sizable home-field advantage while other teams don’t?” This could have a lot of different answers but probably the most important is whether the organizations and coaches choose to stress home-field advantage or not. Some teams, the Patriots and Panthers included, pride themselves on being able to win on the road. It’s an ‘Us against Them’ mentality they are attempting to foster within the team. It’s simply an organizational/coaching decision. Some teams take the approach of ‘Not in OUR House’ and they protect their home-field. These teams are your true home-field advantage teams.
Regardless of which approach is correct (all 4 of the teams in the extreme examples above have enjoyed success in the past few years), one fact comes from all of this. Not every team enjoys the same home-field advantage and each match-up must be looked at individually before arbitrarily assigning 3 points to the home team.
