We have a pretty good picture of the season at this point and below is a breakdown of each division and it's strength this year.
The analysis looks at the division as a whole. For instance, it is not assumed that just because the Colts are in the AFC South, it should be the #1 division.
I have included each division's record outside of it's own division. Also included are Jeff Sagarin's division rankings based on mean average and my weekly power rankings based on simple average.
1) NFC EAST --
Sagarin mean: 24.45 (1st)
jjflr average: 17.78 (2nd)
Record outside of division: 15-9 .625 (1st)
When the 2004 NFC champions are in last place in a division with basically the same team as the previous year, you know the division is solid. EVERY team in this division is competitive with any other team in this league. This will be a GREAT division race down to the end this year with these great teams.
2) AFC West --
Sagarin mean: 24.22 (2nd)
jjflr average: 18.55 (1st)
Record outside of division: 13-9 .590 (3rd)
3 teams above .500 and the Raiders are one of the best 'last place' teams in the league. This division is very solid from top to bottom.
3) NFC South --
Sagarin Mean: 19.81 (4th)
jjflr average: 15.32 (3rd)
Record outside of division: 18-12 .600 (2nd)
This division could get 3 teams in the playoffs. The top 3 teams are very solid and represent some of the best in the NFC. The Saints are obviously dragging this division down.
4) AFC South --
Sagarin Mean: 19.77 (5th) although their average is 20.08 which is 3rd
jjflr average: 14.99 (4th)
Record outside of division: .500 (5th)
This is really hard to call between the AFC South and the AFC North, but I gave it to the South since they also have 2 legitimate playoff contenders and the Colts are quite a bit ahead of the rest of the league right now.
5) AFC North --
Sagarin Mean: 19.97 (3rd)
jjflr average: 14.29 (5th)
Record outside of division: 13-11 .542 (4th)
This division could easily be 4th but it would take quite a bit of improvement out of the Ravens and Browns for this division to get into the top 3.
6) NFC North --
Sagarin Mean: 16.95 (t-6th)
jjflr average: 12.60 (6th)
Record outside of division: 10-14 .417 (6th)
There is a HUGE drop-off with these last 3 divisions. The North has the lead right now after going 4-0 last week but it's still tight.
7) NFC West --
Sagarin Mean: 16.95 (t-6th)
jjflr average: 12.27 (7th)
Record outside of division: 8-14 .364 (7th)
All you have here are the Seahawks. The reason they are ahead of the AFC East is because their first 2 teams are better than the AFCE's first 2 teams.
8) AFC East --
Sagarin Mean: 16.81 (8th)
jjflr average: 10.25 (8th)
Record outside of division: 9-17 .346 (8th)
Wow, how far has this division fallen in one year !! This division had always been discussed in the top 2 or 3 consistently. Now there's very little argument that they belong at the bottom.
