7 NFL teams will have new leadership at the head-coaching position going into next season. 3 of them were forced to change through retirements or resignations and 4 organizations voluntarily decided it was time for a change. The list of coaches that will not be coaching in 2007 includes potential hall-of-famers in Bill Parcells, Bill Cowher, and Marty Schottenheimer. How will their organizations be impacted by their departures? Below is a team by team analyis that looks at how these changes may impact each team and whether the changes in head coaches could be considered upgrades, downgrades, or even ‘swaps’.
Keep in mind that this is simply my ‘take’ on each individual change. With 5 of the new coaches having zero games as a head coach in the NFL, a lot of it is guesswork. Give me your input.
ATLANTA FALCONS
Change: Mora to Petrino
Jim Mora Jr. was fired following the regular season after coaching the Falcons for 3 seasons. He finished with a 26-22 regular season record and made the NFC championship game in his first season (04-05). Personally I think it was a mistake to fire Mora but Mora’s problems with the organization were well-publicized and seemed to come to a head late in the season when Mora ‘joked’ on a radio show that he would take the University of Washington head coaching position if it were offered. Mora’s success dwindled each of his 3 years in the league and he seemed to have ‘lost’ his players at the end.
After a quick search, the Falcons hired Bobby Petrino, most recently the head coach at the University of Louisville. Petrino has spent most of his coaching career in the college ranks. He has a few years of experience in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars prior to returning to the college game in 2002.
This has ‘Nick Saban’ written all over it. The similarities are eery. Saban was also a college coach for the majority of his career. He moves around a LOT like Petrino, never staying in one place or one position for more than a few years. Looking back, it’s now obvious that Saban’s time in the NFL was doomed from the start. He didn’t have his heart into doing what it takes to be a successful head coach in the NFL today. Will Petrino ? My guess is no. The evidence against it happening is significant. The commitment level required to be successful in this position doesn’t align with someone who can’t decide who they are and where they want to be from year to year.
Final Analysis: Minor Downgrade/Petrino’s best chance at success will be in his first year.
DALLAS COWBOYS
Change: Parcells to Phillips
Moving from a hall-of-fame coach to Wade Phillips would, on the surface, normally signal a major downgrade. I’m going to make a strong case that this is a lateral move at the head coaching position for the Cowboys, though.
Bill Parcells remained a very competitive coach after his success with Bellichick and Lawrence Taylor in New York. However, he never attained the championship status he once had, even with 3 different teams over 11 years. Parcells remained a ‘good’ coach, making the playoffs 5 times in those 11 years, including 1 super bowl appearance.
However, I can draw a lot of similarities between Parcells recent ‘success’ and the Cowboys new coach, Wade Phillips. Wade has coached 2 teams over 5 full seasons in his NFL head-coaching career. He made the playoffs in 3 of those years and got more out of a Bills team than anyone else has been able to do since him.
Final Analysis: No Change/Phillips will keep the Cowboys competitive but T.O. shouldn’t expect a Super Bowl ring out of the deal (but he wasn’t going to get one with the 21st century Parcells, either)
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Change: Schottenheimer to Turner
Due mostly to an internal struggle, Marty Schottenheimer was fired well after the season ended. After a quick interview process, Norv Turner has been hired to replace one of the most successful regular season coaches in the history of the NFL. Marty’s success in the regular season in the NFL is unarguable. 200 regular season wins (average of almost 10 wins every year) and 13 playoff appearances.
Norv Turner now takes the helm. Yes, THAT Norv Turner. The same coach who, over 9 seasons as a head coach in this league, has posted a dismal 58-82-1 record and has made the playoffs only one time. This makes him only the 2nd coach in the HISTORY of the NFL to get ‘another’ chance at coaching with such a low lifetime winning percentage. The other ? Norm Van Brocklin, who posted no winning seasons in 6 tries with the Vikings in the 1960’s in his first try as an NFL head coach. His next chance was with the Falcons, who hired him in 1968. How did he fare ? No playoff appearances in 7 seasons as the Falcons head-man.
This is by far the largest downgrade in the coaching changes this off-season. Talent may vary slightly from team to team in this league but going from Marty Schottenheimer to Norv Turner would affect any of them. This move could turn this division-winning team into an organization that will be watching the playoffs from home next season.
Final Analysis: Major Downgrade/Fans in Denver applauded the move. Enough said.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
Change: Shell to Kiffin
After a short second stint with the Raiders (one season), Art Shell was let go in favor of Lane Kiffin, a 31-year old with only 1 year of NFL assistant experience. The rest of Kiffin’s experience comes directly from the college ranks. This rarely pans out and even a winning record out of this young coach would be highly unusual based on the data. See my previous article regarding college coach’s lack of success in the NFL.(http://www.pigskinheaven.com/forums/...d.php?t=54888).
The Raiders are a mess right now. They have huge holes on the O-line. They have a starting RB that should never have been handed a starting role. And they do not have a true leader at QB. Art Shell would have been able to eventually raise the play of his players if given an adequate amount of time (and given some decent draft picks and FA pick-ups). Given a decent amount of talent, Art Shell has shown the ability to be a very productive coach (5 winning seasons out of 6 in his first stint with the Raiders). Shell should have been a long-term hire instead of only being given one season to turn around a disaster.
Kiffin will be out of his league coaching in the NFL while this franchise continues to try and find a direction. I see this as a short 1 or 2-year stay for him and then he will return to college ball and he will remain there for the rest of his coaching career. He will be lucky to win 5 games as a head coach in the NFL.
Final Analysis: Minor Downgrade/It won’t be difficult to improve on 2 wins but Kiffin won’t be in silver and black for long.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
Change: Green to Whisenhunt
The Arizona organization felt it was time for a change and I agree with them. Green’s 3 years in the desert was not a fruitful 3 years. He failed to move the team in a positive direction and this roster is arguably filled with some of the best young talent in the league. However, they still have deficiencies on the O-line and across the board on defense that need to be addressed but Green was unable to move some of their young talent forward when it needed to happen.
Having said that, we all know that the Cardinals are one of those organizations in professional sports that seem to always find a way to lose. Is Whisenhunt’s first head coaching job in this league going to be a successful one or will he, as so many before him have found, struggle to gain footing with a perennial loser.
Whisenhunt has held numerous coaching positions with several teams in the NFL. His professional coaching experience is extensive and I believe he knows this league inside and out. The question will be: will this knowledge turn into wins for a Cardinals organization that desperately needs them ?
Final Analysis: No Change/This to me is most likely not going to turn this organization around in a drastic manner. However, they are fortunate to be playing in the NFC West, where 8 or 9 wins could put them in the playoffs.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Change: Cowher to Tomlin
Cowher’s run with the Steelers was spectacular. Whether you root for them or not. 15 seasons. 10 playoff appearances. 2 super bowl appearances. Averaged nearly 10 wins a year in the regular season over 15 years. Cowher is a hall-of-famer. One of the best of our generation.
As Cowher steps away from the game (at least temporarily), enter Mike Tomlin, who put his time in as a D-back coach in Tampa prior to getting a D-coordinator position with the Vikings for one season. The Vikings success on that side of the ball, especially stopping the run, gained attention, and he has received the opportunity to take over for a legend.
Tomlin may end up being one of the better coaches out of the ‘rookie’ class this year that includes 5 coaches with their first head coaching position in the NFL. Regardless, none of the coaches hired to take over teams this year (including the 2 veteran coaches) could be ranked above Bill Cowher. Therefore, there is no choice but to call this a downgrade at this point.
Final Analysis: Minor Downgrade/Wolv and BBC have convinced me that Cowher of '06 wasn't a great coach but I still can't call this an upgrade in the 'big' picture. Maybe Tomlin will prove me wrong.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
Change: Saban to Cameron
The Dolphins now have a coach who actually wants to be there. This would be an instant upgrade if you or I were hired to replace Saban, no less Cameron. Saban’s exit from this organization makes a lot of sense in retrospect. His teams always started out the season as one of the worst in the league. Almost as if they weren’t ready for the season. This sits squarely on the head coach for not preparing his team for the upcoming season. Once the season started rolling, the team was able to make adjustments and become competitive. Imagine what this team can do if they have a head coach that prepares them for the season.
I believe they have found that person in Cam Cameron. Cameron has jumped back and forth between the college game and the pro game for many years but has several years of NFL experience under his belt. Most importantly, Cameron wants to be an NFL head coach and he’s been in the league long enough to understand what his job will entail.
This is the largest upgrade in coaches this off-season but it’s not necessarily a prediction that Cam Cameron is the next Bill Bellichick…….it’s more reflective on how poor of a job Nick Saban did.
Keep in mind that Cam Cameron is the coach that was mainly responsible for the developments of LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Antonio Gates. And let’s not forget he was able to make Gus Frerotte a pro-bowler many years ago (can we say miracle worker ?) The guy knows how to get the most out of his players.
Final Analysis: Major Upgrade/Players can sense when a coach is passionate about what he does and this team is going to see a big difference in coaches this year. I believe it will transfer to the field.
